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La Liga

Referee: R De Burgos

Real Madrid

T S U S T

2–0

Full-time

Oviedo

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Oviedo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 43%

69%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

57%

40%

Both score Ø 46%

57%

34%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,36 xG 1,04

65% Possession 35%

19 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Oviedo 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	36	30	1	5	+59	+41.1	91
2	Real Madrid	35	24	5	6	+37	+35.0	77
3	Villarreal	36	21	6	9	+24	+11.1	69
4	Ath Madrid	36	20	6	10	+21	+11.5	66
5	Betis	36	14	15	7	+12	+10.3	57
6	Celta	36	13	11	12	+4	+2.0	50
7	Getafe	36	14	6	16	-6	-10.7	48
8	Sociedad	36	11	12	13	-1	-2.6	45
9	Vallecano	36	10	14	12	-6	+3.4	44
10	Ath Bilbao	36	13	5	18	-13	+7.2	44
11	Sevilla	36	12	7	17	-12	-16.8	43
12	Valencia	36	11	10	15	-12	+2.1	43
13	Osasuna	36	11	9	16	-4	-4.3	42
14	Espanol	36	11	9	16	-13	-6.0	42
15	Alaves	36	10	10	16	-12	-2.6	40
16	Girona	36	9	13	14	-15	-8.7	40
17	Elche	36	9	12	15	-9	-20.8	39
18	Mallorca	36	10	9	17	-11	-19.7	39
19	Levante	36	10	9	17	-15	-10.9	39
20	Oviedo	35	6	11	18	-28	-20.4	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	18	0	0	+45	+26.5	54
2	Villarreal	18	14	1	3	+25	+10.8	43
3	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+25	+23.1	43
4	Ath Madrid	18	14	1	3	+21	+19.8	43
5	Betis	18	9	6	3	+14	+10.7	33
6	Elche	18	8	8	2	+10	-2.7	32
7	Osasuna	18	9	5	4	+8	+8.6	32
8	Mallorca	18	8	6	4	+7	+0.9	30
9	Sociedad	18	8	5	5	+7	+7.7	29
10	Ath Bilbao	18	9	2	7	+1	+10.5	29
11	Vallecano	18	6	10	2	+7	+10.2	28
12	Valencia	18	7	6	5	+2	+9.1	27
13	Alaves	18	7	6	5	+1	+2.2	27
14	Sevilla	18	7	4	7	+0	-1.4	25
15	Espanol	18	7	4	7	-3	-0.2	25
16	Getafe	18	7	3	8	+1	-2.0	24
17	Levante	18	6	5	7	-4	-0.1	23
18	Girona	18	6	5	7	-6	-4.3	23
19	Celta	18	5	5	8	+0	+4.7	20
20	Oviedo	18	4	7	7	-8	-10.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	12	1	5	+14	+14.5	37
2	Real Madrid	18	10	4	4	+12	+11.9	34
3	Celta	18	8	6	4	+4	-2.7	30
4	Villarreal	18	7	5	6	-1	+0.3	26
5	Betis	18	5	9	4	-2	-0.4	24
6	Getafe	18	7	3	8	-7	-8.7	24
7	Ath Madrid	18	6	5	7	+0	-8.4	23
8	Sevilla	18	5	3	10	-12	-15.4	18
9	Girona	18	3	8	7	-9	-4.4	17
10	Espanol	18	4	5	9	-10	-5.9	17
11	Sociedad	18	3	7	8	-8	-10.3	16
12	Levante	18	4	4	10	-11	-10.9	16
13	Vallecano	18	4	4	10	-13	-6.7	16
14	Valencia	18	4	4	10	-14	-7.0	16
15	Ath Bilbao	18	4	3	11	-14	-3.2	15
16	Alaves	18	3	4	11	-13	-4.8	13
17	Osasuna	18	2	4	12	-12	-13.0	10
18	Oviedo	17	2	4	11	-20	-10.5	10
19	Mallorca	18	2	3	13	-18	-20.6	9
20	Elche	18	1	4	13	-19	-18.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.