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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Augsburg

U S S T S

3–0

Full-time

Schalke 04

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Augsburg Schalke 04

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,72 xG 2,10

48% Possession 52%

24 Shots 11

13 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 10

11 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.3	3
2	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
3	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.9	3
4	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
5	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
6	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.6	3
7	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
8	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
9	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Paderborn	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
12	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.6	0
13	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
14	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
15	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.9	0
16	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	+4	+3.3	3
2	Freiburg	1	1	0	+3	+1.8	3
3	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	+3	+2.9	3
4	Dortmund	1	1	0	+2	+0.6	3
5	FC Koln	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	3
6	Elversberg	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	3
7	Union Berlin	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	1
8	Mainz	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	1

#	Team	K	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
2	Paderborn	1	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
3	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
4	Leverkusen	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	0
5	Hamburg	1	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
6	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
7	M'gladbach	1	0	1	-3	-2.9	0
8	Stuttgart	1	0	1	-4	-3.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.