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Allsvenskan

Referee: Victor Wolf

Sirius

S T T S U

4–0

Full-time

Elfsborg

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sirius Elfsborg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,7

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

2,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 37%

30%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

67%

59%

Both score Ø 65%

78%

52%

Average goals

3,4

3,2

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,97 xG 0,31

47% Possession 53%

20 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sirius 12. · Elfsborg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	27	20	6	1	+32	+5.1	66
2	Hammarby	27	17	4	6	+26	+18.4	55
3	GAIS	27	13	9	5	+14	+15.0	48
4	Djurgarden	28	12	9	7	+18	+8.0	45
5	Malmo FF	27	12	9	6	+14	+14.5	45
6	AIK	27	12	8	7	+6	+7.1	44
7	Goteborg	27	14	2	11	+3	+2.4	44
8	Elfsborg	27	12	4	11	+4	-0.2	40
9	Hacken	27	9	6	12	-7	+3.5	33
10	Halmstad	27	9	4	14	-25	-12.8	31
11	Brommapojkarna	27	9	3	15	-3	-1.9	30
12	Sirius	27	8	6	13	-5	-0.9	30
13	Norrkoping	27	8	5	14	-13	-12.0	29
14	Degerfors	28	7	5	16	-21	-6.6	26
15	Oster	28	6	7	15	-17	-16.4	25
16	Varnamo	28	3	7	18	-26	-23.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	14	11	1	2	+21	+14.3	34
2	Mjallby	13	9	4	0	+15	+6.7	31
3	GAIS	14	8	3	3	+8	+10.9	27
4	AIK	13	7	5	1	+11	+5.4	26
5	Djurgarden	14	6	6	2	+14	+8.4	24
6	Elfsborg	14	7	3	4	+9	+2.8	24
7	Malmo FF	13	6	4	3	+8	+10.6	22
8	Goteborg	14	6	1	7	+1	+1.8	19
9	Sirius	13	5	2	6	+4	+2.0	17
10	Halmstad	13	5	2	6	-10	-5.6	17
11	Norrkoping	14	5	1	8	-7	-1.3	16
12	Hacken	14	4	3	7	-6	+5.7	15
13	Brommapojkarna	13	4	0	9	-5	-0.6	12
14	Oster	14	3	3	8	-6	-6.2	12
15	Varnamo	14	2	5	7	-9	-9.2	11
16	Degerfors	14	1	4	9	-15	-1.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	14	11	2	1	+17	-1.6	35
2	Goteborg	13	8	1	4	+2	+0.6	25
3	Malmo FF	14	6	5	3	+6	+4.0	23
4	GAIS	13	5	6	2	+6	+4.1	21
5	Hammarby	13	6	3	4	+5	+4.1	21
6	Djurgarden	14	6	3	5	+4	-0.4	21
7	Degerfors	14	6	1	7	-6	-5.6	19
8	Brommapojkarna	14	5	3	6	+2	-1.2	18
9	Hacken	13	5	3	5	-1	-2.2	18
10	AIK	14	5	3	6	-5	+1.8	18
11	Elfsborg	13	5	1	7	-5	-3.0	16
12	Halmstad	14	4	2	8	-15	-7.2	14
13	Norrkoping	13	3	4	6	-6	-10.6	13
14	Sirius	14	3	4	7	-9	-3.0	13
15	Oster	14	3	4	7	-11	-10.2	13
16	Varnamo	14	1	2	11	-17	-14.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.