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Eliteserien

Referee: Tore Hansen

Lillestrom

T T U U S

1–4

Full-time

Fredrikstad

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lillestrom Fredrikstad

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 44%

47%

41%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

41%

53%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,34 xG 3,11

54% Possession 46%

18 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 3

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lillestrom 6. · Fredrikstad 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	18	14	2	2	+33	+27.3	44
2	Viking	18	14	1	3	+24	+15.7	43
3	Tromso	18	10	5	3	+14	+7.2	35
4	Molde	18	9	3	6	+7	+11.5	30
5	Brann	18	8	2	8	+9	+1.9	26
6	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	+2	+4.7	26
7	Rosenborg	18	7	3	8	+1	-1.6	24
8	Sarpsborg 08	18	6	5	7	-3	-0.3	23
9	Ham-Kam	18	6	5	7	-6	-5.4	23
10	Fredrikstad	17	7	2	8	-9	-10.4	23
11	Valerenga	18	6	3	9	-7	-3.3	21
12	Sandefjord	18	5	4	9	-8	-9.1	19
13	KFUM Oslo	18	5	4	9	-11	-11.4	19
14	Kristiansund	18	4	4	10	-12	-10.2	16
15	Aalesund	18	2	9	7	-15	-12.8	15
16	Start	18	3	4	11	-19	-3.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	9	8	0	1	+24	+20.9	24
2	Viking	8	8	0	0	+18	+8.5	24
3	Tromso	10	6	3	1	+11	+10.8	21
4	Molde	9	6	1	2	+10	+6.0	19
5	Rosenborg	9	5	2	2	+8	+4.7	17
6	Ham-Kam	9	5	2	2	+2	-2.2	17
7	Fredrikstad	8	5	1	2	+3	-1.3	16
8	Brann	9	5	0	4	+4	+4.6	15
9	Sarpsborg 08	8	4	2	2	+2	+2.8	14
10	KFUM Oslo	10	4	2	4	-1	-7.1	14
11	Valerenga	10	4	1	5	+1	-2.0	13
12	Lillestrom	8	4	0	4	+3	+4.7	12
13	Kristiansund	8	3	2	3	-1	-6.6	11
14	Sandefjord	9	2	4	3	-3	-4.8	10
15	Start	9	2	3	4	-5	+1.8	9
16	Aalesund	10	1	6	3	-6	-2.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	9	6	2	1	+9	+6.4	20
2	Viking	10	6	1	3	+6	+7.2	19
3	Tromso	8	4	2	2	+3	-3.6	14
4	Lillestrom	9	4	2	3	-1	-0.0	14
5	Brann	9	3	2	4	+5	-2.8	11
6	Molde	9	3	2	4	-3	+5.5	11
7	Sarpsborg 08	10	2	3	5	-5	-3.1	9
8	Sandefjord	9	3	0	6	-5	-4.3	9
9	Valerenga	8	2	2	4	-8	-1.4	8
10	Rosenborg	9	2	1	6	-7	-6.3	7
11	Fredrikstad	9	2	1	6	-12	-9.2	7
12	Ham-Kam	9	1	3	5	-8	-3.2	6
13	Aalesund	8	1	3	4	-9	-10.7	6
14	KFUM Oslo	8	1	2	5	-10	-4.3	5
15	Kristiansund	10	1	2	7	-11	-3.6	5
16	Start	9	1	1	7	-14	-5.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.