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Championship

Referee: Andrew Kitchen

Lincoln

T T S S U

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

T S T S U

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lincoln Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

3,8

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,27 xG 0,77

39% Possession 61%

19 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lincoln 18. · Southampton 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	4	3	1	0	+6	+1.4	10
2	QPR	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.0	10
3	Charlton	4	3	1	0	+3	-2.8	10
4	Southampton	4	2	1	1	+5	+4.6	7
5	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.9	7
6	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+2	+3.4	7
7	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
8	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+1	-4.2	7
9	Sheffield United	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.5	6
10	Birmingham	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.2	6
11	Millwall	4	2	0	2	-2	+2.3	6
12	Wrexham	4	1	2	1	+2	+1.6	5
13	West Ham	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.5	5
14	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.2	5
15	Watford	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.5	5
16	Bolton	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.1	4
17	Derby	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.6	4
18	Lincoln	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.1	4
19	Cardiff	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.8	3
20	Norwich	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.4	3
21	Portsmouth	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.2	3
22	Stoke	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.2	3
23	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-5	-0.4	2
24	Preston	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.7	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
3	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
4	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
5	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
6	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
7	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
8	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
9	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
10	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
11	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
12	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
13	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
14	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
15	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
16	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
17	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
18	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
19	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
20	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
21	Lincoln	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.1	1
22	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
23	Preston	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0
24	Portsmouth	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
3	Wrexham	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.5	4
4	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.6	4
5	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.2	4
6	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
7	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
8	Derby	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
9	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
10	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
11	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
12	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
13	West Ham	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
14	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.2	2
15	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
16	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
17	Bolton	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
18	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.5	1
19	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.9	1
20	Watford	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.3	1
21	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.6	0
22	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0
23	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.4	0
24	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.