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Eredivisie

Referee: Ed Peter Janssen

Excelsior

U T U U T

0–2

Full-time

Willem II

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 22%

17%

26%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

61%

35%

Both score Ø 54%

65%

43%

Average goals

3,1

2,0

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 2

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 17. · Willem II 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	23	19	3	1	+47	60
2	Ajax	23	17	4	2	+33	55
3	PSV Eindhoven	23	15	7	1	+28	52
4	Utrecht	21	10	6	5	+6	36
5	Twente	24	9	8	7	+2	35
6	AZ Alkmaar	21	8	9	4	+7	33
7	Vitesse	23	9	6	8	+4	33
8	Heerenveen	21	9	5	7	+11	32
9	Heracles	23	7	7	9	-3	28
10	Willem II	23	6	8	9	-8	26
11	Nijmegen	23	6	7	10	-16	25
12	Groningen	23	5	9	9	-4	24
13	Zwolle	23	6	5	12	-22	23
14	Roda	23	3	11	9	-14	20
15	Sparta Rotterdam	23	4	7	12	-12	19
16	Go Ahead Eagles	23	5	4	14	-16	19
17	Excelsior	23	4	7	12	-19	19
18	Den Haag	24	5	3	16	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	12	10	2	0	+29	32
2	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	3	1	+12	27
3	Ajax	11	8	2	1	+18	26
4	Twente	12	6	3	3	+5	21
5	Heerenveen	10	5	3	2	+6	18
6	Heracles	12	5	3	4	+5	18
7	Utrecht	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	+1	17
9	Nijmegen	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	AZ Alkmaar	10	3	5	2	+2	14
11	Willem II	13	3	5	5	-6	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	4	4	+0	13
13	Excelsior	11	3	4	4	-1	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	11	4	1	6	-3	13
15	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12
16	Roda	12	2	5	5	-4	11
17	Groningen	11	2	5	4	-7	11
18	Den Haag	12	3	2	7	-7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Feyenoord	11	9	1	1	+18	28
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	4	0	+16	25
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	4	2	+5	19
5	Utrecht	11	5	4	2	+2	19
6	Vitesse	11	4	4	3	+3	16
7	Heerenveen	11	4	2	5	+5	14
8	Twente	12	3	5	4	-3	14
9	Groningen	12	3	4	5	+3	13
10	Willem II	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	Zwolle	11	3	2	6	-11	11
12	Heracles	11	2	4	5	-8	10
13	Roda	11	1	6	4	-10	9
14	Nijmegen	12	2	3	7	-17	9
15	Den Haag	12	2	1	9	-17	7
16	Sparta Rotterdam	12	1	3	8	-12	6
17	Go Ahead Eagles	12	1	3	8	-13	6
18	Excelsior	12	1	3	8	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.