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Championship
Referee: Andy Madley
QPR
U S U S S
0–1
Full-time
Middlesbrough
S T S S U
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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Middlesbrough
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 63%
75%
50%
Points per game
2,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
75%
75%
Both score Ø 88%
75%
100%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%
16 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 7
5 Goalkeeper saves 5
12 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
3 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match QPR 2. · Middlesbrough 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Swansea 4 3 1 0 +6 +1.4 10
2 QPR 4 3 1 0 +4 +2.0 10
3 Charlton 5 3 1 1 -1 -4.4 10
4 Southampton 5 2 2 1 +5 +3.1 8
5 Wolves 4 2 1 1 +3 +3.9 7
6 Middlesbrough 4 2 1 1 +2 +3.4 7
7 West Brom 4 2 1 1 +1 -1.9 7
8 Bristol City 4 2 1 1 +1 -4.2 7
9 Sheffield United 4 1 3 0 +1 -0.5 6
10 Birmingham 4 1 3 0 +1 +1.2 6
11 Stoke 5 2 0 3 -1 -1.7 6
12 Millwall 4 2 0 2 -2 +2.3 6
13 Wrexham 4 1 2 1 +2 +1.6 5
14 West Ham 4 1 2 1 +1 +0.5 5
15 Blackburn 5 1 2 2 -1 -3.3 5
16 Watford 4 1 2 1 -1 -1.5 5
17 Lincoln 5 1 2 2 -2 +0.4 5
18 Bolton 4 1 1 2 -1 -1.1 4
19 Derby 4 1 1 2 -2 -2.6 4
20 Cardiff 4 0 3 1 -1 +0.8 3
21 Norwich 4 1 0 3 -2 +0.4 3
22 Portsmouth 4 1 0 3 -3 -0.2 3
23 Preston 5 1 0 4 -5 +0.8 3
24 Burnley 4 0 2 2 -5 -0.4 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

QPR Middlesbrough
Koki Saito 🔁
↦ Ilias Chair
14′
20′
will lankshear 0–1
Callum Brittain
Rumarn Burrell 🔁
↦ Richard Kone
39′
Half-time 0–1
55′
🔁 Tommy Conway
↦ Riley McGree
55′
🔁 Myles Peart-Harris
↦ will lankshear
58′
🟨 A.Malanda
Tariq Lamptey 🔁
↦ Dennis Cirkin
67′
Nicolas Madsen 🔁
↦ Kwame Poku
67′
Glen Kamara 🔁
↦ Jake Clarke-Salter
67′
71′
🔁 Alfie Jones
↦ Max Arfsten
72′
🔁 Luke Ayling
↦ Ashley Phillips
76′
🟨 Callum Brittain
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

QPR

4-2-3-1
1 P. Charles G
27 A. Mbengue D
3 J. Dunne D
6 J. Clarke-Salter D
19 D. Cirkin D
20 H. Vale M
5 R. Edwards M
17 K. Poku M
10 I. Chair M
11 P. Smyth M
22 R. Kone F
Bench (9)
2 K. Adamson
16 R. Burrell
18 G. Kamara
48 T. Lamptey
15 A. Lloyd
24 N. Madsen
14 K. Saito
40 J. Varane
13 C. Ward

Coach: Julien Stéphan

Middlesbrough

3-4-2-1
1 R. Vítek G
4 A. Phillips D
29 A. Malanda D
30 Neto Borges D
2 C. Brittain M
6 S. Berhalter M
10 A. Morris M
17 M. Arfsten M
22 K. Joseph M
8 R. McGree M
7 W. Lankshear F
Bench (9)
12 L. Ayling
31 S. Brynn
19 Leo Castledine
9 T. Conway
11 A. Cozier-Duberry
5 A. Jones
14 M. Peart-Harris
21 R. Pukštas
13 D. Strelec

Coach: K. Hellberg

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,14
U
3,52
B ✓
2,17
Over/under goals
O1,5
1,22
U1,5 ✓
3,74
O2,5
1,73
U2,5 ✓
2,03
O3,5
2,68
U3,5 ✓
1,40
Both teams to score
BLS ja
1,60
BLS nei ✓
2,20

Referee

Andy Madley · 129 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.