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Eredivisie

Referee: Edwin Van de Graaf

Excelsior

S T S T T

2–1

Full-time

Willem II

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

This season — Eredivisie · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 31%

34%

28%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

66%

69%

Both score Ø 62%

62%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

64% Possession 36%

20 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Excelsior 11. · Willem II 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	29	24	2	3	+44	74
2	Ajax	29	21	4	4	+51	67
3	AZ Alkmaar	29	19	5	5	+28	62
4	Feyenoord	29	15	6	8	+26	51
5	Zwolle	29	12	7	10	-2	43
6	Utrecht	25	11	7	7	+0	40
7	Vitesse	25	10	8	7	+9	38
8	Heerenveen	27	10	8	9	-3	38
9	Heracles	29	10	7	12	-13	37
10	Den Haag	27	10	6	11	-7	36
11	Excelsior	29	10	5	14	-11	35
12	VVV Venlo	29	7	13	9	-9	34
13	Willem II	29	8	6	15	-10	30
14	Groningen	29	6	11	12	-5	29
15	NAC Breda	29	7	6	16	-18	27
16	Roda	29	6	5	18	-29	23
17	Sparta Rotterdam	29	5	6	18	-31	21
18	Twente	29	4	8	17	-20	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	14	1	0	+32	43
2	Ajax	14	11	1	2	+26	34
3	Feyenoord	15	9	3	3	+16	30
4	Heracles	15	9	3	3	+7	30
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	2	3	+11	29
6	Zwolle	15	8	3	4	+8	27
7	Utrecht	12	6	5	1	+4	23
8	Groningen	15	5	7	3	+6	22
9	Willem II	15	6	3	6	+6	21
10	Den Haag	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Heerenveen	13	5	3	5	-4	18
12	Vitesse	13	4	5	4	+1	17
13	NAC Breda	14	5	1	8	-8	16
14	VVV Venlo	15	3	6	6	-5	15
15	Twente	14	3	5	6	-6	14
16	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	2	8	-14	14
17	Roda	14	3	3	8	-13	12
18	Excelsior	14	2	4	8	-8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	15	10	3	2	+25	33
2	AZ Alkmaar	15	10	3	2	+17	33
3	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	1	3	+12	31
4	Excelsior	15	8	1	6	-3	25
5	Feyenoord	14	6	3	5	+10	21
6	Vitesse	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Heerenveen	14	5	5	4	+1	20
8	VVV Venlo	14	4	7	3	-4	19
9	Den Haag	13	5	3	5	-4	18
10	Utrecht	13	5	2	6	-4	17
11	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-10	16
12	NAC Breda	15	2	5	8	-10	11
13	Roda	15	3	2	10	-16	11
14	Willem II	14	2	3	9	-16	9
15	Groningen	14	1	4	9	-11	7
16	Sparta Rotterdam	15	1	4	10	-17	7
17	Heracles	14	1	4	9	-20	7
18	Twente	15	1	3	11	-14	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.