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Eredivisie

Referee: S Gözübüyük

Ajax

S S S S S

3–2

Full-time

PSV Eindhoven

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax PSV Eindhoven

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,3

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 89%

78%

100%

Points per game

2,4

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

44%

80%

Both score Ø 52%

44%

60%

Average goals

3,0

4,1

Scored

2,2

3,5

Conceded

0,8

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+2,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,03 xG 1,04

46% Possession 54%

21 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · PSV Eindhoven 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+29	+15.7	30
2	Ajax	9	7	1	1	+13	+11.4	22
3	Utrecht	9	7	1	1	+5	-2.2	22
4	Twente	11	6	3	2	+13	+14.1	21
5	Feyenoord	10	5	4	1	+11	+10.2	19
6	NAC Breda	10	5	0	5	-4	-3.0	15
7	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	2	3	+3	+4.3	14
8	Go Ahead Eagles	10	4	2	4	-4	+5.0	14
9	For Sittard	10	4	2	4	-4	+0.1	14
10	Willem II	11	3	3	5	+0	-9.0	12
11	Heerenveen	9	3	2	4	+0	+0.5	11
12	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	5	3	-2	+0.3	11
13	Nijmegen	10	3	1	6	+0	-2.7	10
14	Groningen	10	2	3	5	-2	-5.8	9
15	Heracles	10	2	3	5	-12	-10.0	9
16	Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-10	-8.9	8
17	Almere City	10	1	3	6	-16	-6.5	6
18	Waalwijk	10	0	1	9	-20	-13.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+16	+7.7	15
2	Ajax	4	4	0	0	+9	+7.4	12
3	NAC Breda	5	4	0	1	+5	+2.4	12
4	Utrecht	5	4	0	1	+2	+0.5	12
5	Twente	5	3	2	0	+8	+10.3	11
6	Heerenveen	5	3	2	0	+7	+5.7	11
7	For Sittard	5	3	0	2	+0	+2.5	9
8	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+2	+0.4	7
9	Willem II	6	2	1	3	+1	-3.4	7
10	Feyenoord	4	2	1	1	+1	+4.6	7
11	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	1	2	-1	+4.9	7
12	Zwolle	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.8	6
13	Groningen	5	1	2	2	+1	-2.6	5
14	Heracles	5	1	2	2	-2	-2.3	5
15	Sparta Rotterdam	5	0	4	1	-1	+2.6	4
16	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.8	4
17	Almere City	6	1	1	4	-12	-1.8	4
18	Waalwijk	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+8.0	15
2	Feyenoord	6	3	3	0	+10	+5.6	12
3	Twente	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.8	10
4	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+4	+3.9	10
5	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.6	10
6	Utrecht	4	3	1	0	+3	-2.6	10
7	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	-1	-2.3	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	1	2	-3	+0.0	7
9	Willem II	5	1	2	2	-1	-5.6	5
10	For Sittard	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.3	5
11	Groningen	5	1	1	3	-3	-3.1	4
12	Heracles	5	1	1	3	-10	-7.6	4
13	Nijmegen	5	1	0	4	-2	-3.1	3
14	NAC Breda	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.5	3
15	Almere City	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.7	2
16	Zwolle	5	0	2	3	-8	-8.1	2
17	Heerenveen	4	0	0	4	-7	-5.2	0
18	Waalwijk	5	0	0	5	-13	-8.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.