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Eredivisie

Referee: Alex Bos

Ajax

S S S S U

2–2

Full-time

Heerenveen

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

1,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,00 xG 1,36

54% Possession 46%

23 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 8

9 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 9. · Heerenveen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.9	6
2	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.5	6
3	Go Ahead Eagles	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.5	4
4	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.9	4
5	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.0	4
6	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.9	4
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.9	3
8	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.1	3
9	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
10	Twente	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.8	3
11	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.4	3
12	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
13	Telstar	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
14	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.5	0
15	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.4	0
16	Den Haag	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.9	0
17	Willem II	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
18	Cambuur	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Go Ahead Eagles	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
2	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
3	For Sittard	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.6	3
4	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
5	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
6	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
7	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
8	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.4	1
9	Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
10	Excelsior	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
11	Sparta Rotterdam	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.5	0
12	Telstar	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
13	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
14	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
15	Den Haag	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
16	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
17	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.7	3
2	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
3	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
4	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
5	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
6	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
7	Telstar	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
8	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
9	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.5	3
10	For Sittard	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
11	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.4	1
12	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
13	Twente	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
14	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.4	0
15	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.6	0
16	Den Haag	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.7	0
17	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.