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La Liga

Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura

Real Madrid

S S S T S

4–1

Full-time

Vallecano

T T U T S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,5

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,3

4,3

Scored

2,5

1,8

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,62 xG 1,21

56% Possession 44%

24 Shots 18

11 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 4. · Vallecano 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+15	+9.4	12
2	Alaves	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.7	10
3	Sevilla	5	3	1	1	+2	-0.6	10
4	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	+7	+6.1	9
5	Betis	4	3	0	1	+0	-1.4	9
6	La Coruna	4	2	2	0	+3	-1.7	8
7	Espanol	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.4	7
8	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+1	-1.1	7
9	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.0	7
10	Santander	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.0	7
11	Sociedad	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.4	7
12	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	-3	+2.9	7
13	Levante	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.2	5
14	Vallecano	4	1	1	2	-3	-3.6	4
15	Getafe	4	1	1	2	-3	-3.1	4
16	Celta	5	0	3	2	-3	-4.0	3
17	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	-2	+2.2	2
18	Malaga	4	0	2	2	-6	-1.9	2
19	Elche	5	0	2	3	-7	-3.5	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	-9	+0.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Alaves	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.1	9
2	Santander	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.9	7
3	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.5	6
4	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.7	6
5	Betis	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.1	6
6	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
7	Espanol	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.4	4
8	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	-2.0	4
9	La Coruna	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
10	Ath Bilbao	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.8	4
11	Vallecano	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.6	4
12	Sociedad	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
13	Getafe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
14	Osasuna	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.4	4
15	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
16	Malaga	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.8	2
17	Valencia	3	0	1	2	-6	+0.3	1
18	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
19	Celta	2	0	0	2	-3	-4.5	0
20	Elche	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+10	+3.7	6
2	Sevilla	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
3	La Coruna	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.8	4
4	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.1	3
5	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.0	3
6	Real Madrid	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
7	Celta	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.5	3
8	Ath Madrid	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
9	Osasuna	2	1	0	1	-2	+2.5	3
10	Betis	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.2	3
11	Sociedad	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.4	3
12	Elche	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.2	2
13	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.2	2
14	Levante	3	0	2	1	-3	-0.7	2
15	Alaves	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.6	1
16	Santander	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.1	0
17	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.0	0
18	Vallecano	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.0	0
19	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0
20	Malaga	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.