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Championship

Referee: Lewis Smith

Watford

T U T T S

1–2

Full-time

Stoke

U T S S U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%

6 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 8

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 14. · Stoke 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	7	4	2	1	+11	+1.2	14
2	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+3	-2.8	14
3	QPR	7	3	3	1	+3	+2.6	12
4	Southampton	6	3	2	1	+7	+3.3	11
5	Swansea	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.2	11
6	Charlton	6	3	2	1	-1	-5.0	11
7	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.4	10
8	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+2	-4.2	10
9	Birmingham	7	2	4	1	+1	+1.3	10
10	Millwall	5	3	0	2	+2	+2.3	9
11	Norwich	6	3	0	3	+1	-0.3	9
12	Sheffield United	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.7	9
13	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.5	8
14	Watford	6	2	2	2	-1	-2.6	8
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-1	-3.8	7
16	Wrexham	7	1	4	2	-4	+1.4	7
17	Bolton	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.7	7
18	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	-1	-0.2	6
19	Blackburn	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5
20	Lincoln	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.4	5
21	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	-4	+3.0	4
22	Derby	7	1	1	5	-7	-1.7	4
23	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	-0.2	3
24	Preston	6	1	0	5	-6	+2.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	4	3	0	1	+10	+2.2	9
2	Southampton	3	3	0	0	+8	+3.9	9
3	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.4	8
4	Watford	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.4	7
5	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.2	7
6	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.7	6
7	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.6	6
8	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.4	6
9	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
10	Bolton	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.1	6
11	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.9	5
12	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
13	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.6	4
14	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.5	4
15	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.0	3
16	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.6	3
17	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.2	3
18	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
19	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.1	3
20	Preston	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.2	3
21	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
22	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.9	2
23	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
24	Derby	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	QPR	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.9	8
2	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.6	7
3	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.3	7
4	Swansea	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
5	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+0	-3.2	6
6	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
7	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.2	5
8	Wrexham	4	1	2	1	-3	+0.5	5
9	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
10	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
11	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.8	4
12	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
13	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
14	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
15	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
16	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
17	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
19	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.3	1
20	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-4	+0.4	1
21	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
22	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.4	1
23	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.6	1
24	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	+1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.