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Premier League

Referee: D England

Man United

S U T S S

3–2

Full-time

Liverpool

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

62%

Both score Ø 70%

74%

65%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,34 xG 0,89

37% Possession 63%

18 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 3. · Liverpool 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	35	23	7	5	+41	+34.2	76
2	Man City	33	21	7	5	+37	+25.8	70
3	Man United	34	17	10	7	+14	+12.4	61
4	Liverpool	34	17	7	10	+13	+13.6	58
5	Aston Villa	34	17	7	10	+5	-5.5	58
6	Bournemouth	35	12	16	7	+3	+5.8	52
7	Brentford	35	14	9	12	+6	+10.1	51
8	Brighton	35	13	11	11	+7	+5.7	50
9	Chelsea	34	13	9	12	+8	+15.8	48
10	Fulham	35	14	6	15	-5	-7.2	48
11	Everton	34	13	8	13	+0	-9.6	47
12	Sunderland	35	12	11	12	-9	-17.0	47
13	Newcastle	35	13	6	16	-2	+6.1	45
14	Leeds	35	10	13	12	-5	+2.2	43
15	Crystal Palace	34	11	10	13	-6	+7.8	43
16	Nott'm Forest	34	10	9	15	-4	-8.6	39
17	West Ham	35	9	9	17	-19	-13.9	36
18	Tottenham	34	8	10	16	-10	-13.7	34
19	Burnley	35	4	8	23	-36	-41.0	20
20	Wolves	35	3	9	23	-38	-23.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+29	+20.9	44
2	Man City	16	12	3	1	+26	+14.1	39
3	Man United	17	11	3	3	+13	+12.8	36
4	Aston Villa	17	11	2	4	+9	+1.9	35
5	Liverpool	17	10	4	3	+14	+9.3	34
6	Fulham	17	10	2	5	+9	+2.2	32
7	Brentford	18	8	7	3	+12	+13.2	31
8	Brighton	17	8	6	3	+10	+7.4	30
9	Bournemouth	18	7	9	2	+9	+13.6	30
10	Leeds	18	8	5	5	+7	+10.0	29
11	Newcastle	18	9	2	7	+4	+8.3	29
12	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+4	-4.1	29
13	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+2	+9.0	23
14	Everton	17	6	4	7	+1	-1.5	22
15	Crystal Palace	17	4	8	5	-3	+9.5	20
16	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-5	-1.8	19
17	Nott'm Forest	17	4	6	7	-3	+1.9	18
18	Wolves	18	3	4	11	-15	-7.7	13
19	Tottenham	17	2	5	10	-10	-4.2	11
20	Burnley	17	2	5	10	-11	-16.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	9	5	3	+12	+13.2	32
2	Man City	17	9	4	4	+11	+11.7	31
3	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+6	+6.8	25
4	Man United	17	6	7	4	+1	-0.4	25
5	Everton	17	7	4	6	-1	-8.1	25
6	Liverpool	17	7	3	7	-1	+4.3	24
7	Tottenham	17	6	5	6	+0	-9.5	23
8	Crystal Palace	17	7	2	8	-3	-1.7	23
9	Aston Villa	17	6	5	6	-4	-7.4	23
10	Bournemouth	17	5	7	5	-6	-7.8	22
11	Nott'm Forest	17	6	3	8	-1	-10.5	21
12	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-3	-1.7	20
13	Brentford	17	6	2	9	-6	-3.1	20
14	Sunderland	18	4	6	8	-13	-12.9	18
15	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-14	-12.1	17
16	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-6	-2.2	16
17	Fulham	18	4	4	10	-14	-9.4	16
18	Leeds	17	2	8	7	-12	-7.8	14
19	Burnley	18	2	3	13	-25	-24.1	9
20	Wolves	17	0	5	12	-23	-15.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.