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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Newcastle

U S T T U

2–3

Full-time

Liverpool

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

17%

100%

Average goals

1,5

4,5

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

0,0

6,0

Scored

0,0

4,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,98 xG 0,69

38% Possession 62%

10 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 1

17 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 15. · Liverpool 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.5	6
2	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.9	6
3	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.9	4
4	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.2	4
5	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
6	Man City	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.4	3
7	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.0	3
8	Everton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.2	3
9	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
10	Burnley	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.1	3
11	Brentford	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	3
12	Leeds	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.4	3
13	Fulham	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
14	Crystal Palace	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
15	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
16	Man United	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.1	1
17	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
18	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.5	1
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.7	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+5	+2.7	3
2	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.4	3
3	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.2	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
5	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
7	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
8	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
9	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
10	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
11	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
12	Brighton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
13	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
15	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
16	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
17	Man City	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
18	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.0	0
19	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.0	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.9	3
3	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
4	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
6	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
7	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
8	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
9	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
10	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
11	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
12	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
13	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
14	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
15	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
16	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
17	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0
18	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.2	0
19	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.