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Champions League
Referee: F Zwayer
Chelsea
S T S S S
5–1
Full-time
Ajax
U S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,5
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
1,2
2,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,5
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
50%
0%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,0
0,0
Conceded
1,5
3,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–1

3,65 xG 1,05
66% Possession 34%
22 Shots 2
10 Shots on target 1
8 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
11 Corners 0
3 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 6
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Chelsea Ajax
16′
ℹ️ Kenneth Taylor
VAR: Card upgrade
17′
🟥 Kenneth Taylor
1–0 M. Guiu ⚽
W. Fofana
18′
23′
🔁 J. Mokio
↦ O. Gloukh
2–0 M. Caicedo ⚽
J. Gittens
27′
Tosin Adarabioyo 🟨
31′
33′
⚽ W. Weghorst 2–1
3–1 E. Fernandez ⚽
45′
4–1 Estevao ⚽
45′
Half-time 4–1
Andrey Santos 🔁
↦ E. Fernandez
46′
T. Chalobah 🔁
↦ T. Adarabioyo
46′
T. George 🔁
↦ M. Guiu
46′
46′
🔁 D. Klaassen
↦ W. Weghorst
5–1 T. George ⚽
48′
J. Acheampong 🔁
↦ M. Caicedo
49′
50′
🟨 Wout Weghorst
Estêvão 🟨
56′
R. Walsh 🔁
↦ R. Lavia
66′
79′
🔁 Y. Regeer
↦ J. McConnell
84′
🔁 A. Gaaei
↦ L. Rosa
84′
🔁 K. Fitz-Jim
↦ M. Godts
Full-time 5–1

Line-ups

Chelsea

4-3-3
12 F. Jorgensen G
25 M. Caicedo D
29 W. Fofana D
4 T. Adarabioyo D
21 J. Hato D
40 F. Buonanotte M
45 R. Lavia M
8 E. Fernandez M
41 Estêvão F
38 M. Guiu F
11 J. Gittens F
Bench (12)
1 R. Sanchez
50 M. Merrick
3 M. Cucurella
7 P. Neto
17 Andrey Santos
23 T. Chalobah
24 R. James
32 T. George
34 J. Acheampong
46 R. Walsh
49 A. Garnacho
76 R. Kavuma McQueen

Coach: Liam Rosenior

Ajax

4-2-3-1
22 R. Pasveer G
2 L. Rosa D
4 K. Itakura D
37 J. Sutalo D
15 Y. Baas D
16 J. McConnell M
8 K. Taylor M
7 R. Moro M
10 O. Gloukh M
11 M. Godts M
25 W. Weghorst F
Bench (11)
1 V. Jaros
12 J. Heerkens
3 A. Gaaei
6 Y. Regeer
17 O. Edvardsen
18 D. Klaassen
19 D. Konadu
24 J. Mokio
28 K. Fitz-Jim
41 G. Alders
43 R. Bounida

Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.