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Eredivisie

Referee: Jeroen Manschot

Ajax

T U S T U

0–2

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,8

Scored

1,7

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

63%

88%

Both score Ø 82%

75%

88%

Average goals

3,4

3,6

Scored

2,1

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,24 xG 2,24

61% Possession 39%

17 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 3. · AZ Alkmaar 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+15	+9.8	22
2	Feyenoord	8	7	1	0	+12	+11.0	22
3	Ajax	8	4	4	0	+7	+5.3	16
4	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	3	1	+5	+6.7	15
5	Groningen	8	5	0	3	+3	+0.7	15
6	Nijmegen	9	4	2	3	+8	+5.7	14
7	Twente	9	4	2	3	+3	+8.9	14
8	For Sittard	8	4	1	3	+1	-4.6	13
9	Utrecht	8	4	0	4	+7	+0.5	12
10	Go Ahead Eagles	9	2	4	3	-1	-3.8	10
11	Sparta Rotterdam	8	3	1	4	-11	-4.1	10
12	Heerenveen	7	2	2	3	-1	+7.6	8
13	Telstar	8	2	1	5	-5	-4.2	7
14	Volendam	9	1	4	4	-6	-6.7	7
15	NAC Breda	8	2	1	5	-6	-6.7	7
16	Zwolle	8	2	1	5	-8	-7.1	7
17	Excelsior	8	2	0	6	-10	-7.2	6
18	Heracles	8	1	0	7	-13	-11.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.3	12
2	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+6	+6.7	12
3	Nijmegen	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.1	10
4	PSV Eindhoven	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.3	10
5	For Sittard	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.5	10
6	Utrecht	4	3	0	1	+8	+3.6	9
7	Groningen	4	3	0	1	+6	+0.8	9
8	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.9	8
9	Heerenveen	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.0	8
10	Twente	4	2	1	1	+0	+4.0	7
11	NAC Breda	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.1	6
12	Go Ahead Eagles	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.4	5
13	Volendam	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.9	5
14	Telstar	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.4	4
15	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	-7	-2.9	4
16	Heracles	3	1	0	2	-1	-4.3	3
17	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-2	-4.1	3
18	Zwolle	4	1	0	3	-7	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+9	+3.5	12
2	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.3	10
3	Twente	5	2	1	2	+3	+4.8	7
4	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.8	7
5	Groningen	4	2	0	2	-3	-0.0	6
6	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.2	6
7	Go Ahead Eagles	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.2	5
8	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	+1	+0.6	4
9	Ajax	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.0	4
10	Zwolle	4	1	1	2	-1	-3.1	4
11	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-1	-3.1	3
12	For Sittard	4	1	0	3	-2	-6.1	3
13	Telstar	4	1	0	3	-3	-4.6	3
14	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-8	-3.1	3
15	Volendam	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.7	2
16	NAC Breda	4	0	1	3	-6	-7.8	1
17	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
18	Heracles	5	0	0	5	-12	-7.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.