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Eredivisie
Referee: D Higler
Groningen
T T T S T
1–0
Full-time
Ajax
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Groningen Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
0,7
1,5
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,7
This season — Eredivisie · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
2,0
0,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

30% Possession 70%
11 Shots 19
3 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 11
2 Offside 4
10 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Groningen 12. · Ajax 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Heerenveen 4 3 1 0 +5 10
2 Vitesse 4 3 0 1 +5 9
3 Ajax 3 3 0 0 +5 9
4 Twente 4 2 2 0 +4 8
5 Feyenoord 3 2 1 0 +4 7
6 PSV Eindhoven 3 2 1 0 +3 7
7 Utrecht 3 1 2 0 +2 5
8 Zwolle 3 1 1 1 +2 4
9 Willem II 3 1 1 1 +2 4
10 VVV Venlo 4 1 1 2 +0 4
11 Heracles 4 1 1 2 -5 4
12 Groningen 3 1 0 2 -3 3
13 Den Haag 4 1 0 3 -4 3
14 AZ Alkmaar 2 0 2 0 +0 2
15 FC Emmen 4 0 2 2 -3 2
16 For Sittard 3 0 1 2 -4 1
17 Waalwijk 3 0 0 3 -6 0
18 Sparta Rotterdam 3 0 0 3 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Groningen Ajax
Half-time 1–0
1–0 R. Balk
49′
55′
🔁 David Neres
↦ Antony
60′
🟨 Ryan Gravenberch
68′
🔁 J. Ekkelenkamp
↦ E. Álvarez
P. Joosten 🔁
↦ J. Larsen
69′
M. El Hankouri 🔁
↦ R. Balk
69′
69′
🔁 L. Traoré
↦ Z. Labyad
76′
🔁 K. Huntelaar
↦ N. Mazraoui
76′
🔁 L. Martínez
↦ D. Blind
T. Poll 🔁
↦ R. Lundqvist
87′
R. Postema 🔁
↦ D. van Kaam
97′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Groningen

4-2-3-1
1 S. Padt G
3 B. van Hintum D
2 D. Dankerlui D
4 W. Dammers D
5 K. Itakura D
7 R. Lundqvist M
18 A. El Messaoudi M
6 A. Matusiwa M
26 D. van Kaam M
9 J. Larsen F
35 R. Balk M
Bench (10)
14 P. Joosten
11 M. El Hankouri
32 T. Poll
29 R. Postema
33 J. van Kaam
31 T. Suslov
24 N. Bertrams
48 L. Miguel
25 J. de Boer
17 Migue Leal

Coach: D. Buijs

Ajax

4-3-3
24 A. Onana G
17 D. Blind D
31 N. Tagliafico D
12 N. Mazraoui D
4 E. Álvarez M
2 J. Timber D
19 Z. Labyad F
8 R. Gravenberch M
10 D. Tadić F
11 Q. Promes M
39 Antony F
Bench (10)
7 David Neres
18 J. Ekkelenkamp
23 L. Traoré
9 K. Huntelaar
21 L. Martínez
5 S. Klaiber
16 K. Scherpen
1 M. Stekelenburg
25 K. Taylor
3 P. Schuurs

Coach: E. ten Hag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
6,65
U
4,88
B
1,41
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,48
U2,5 ✓
2,61
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Higler · 133 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.