Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Hammarby
Djurgarden
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Malmo FF
|
22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | +21 | 44 |
| 2 |
Hacken
|
22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | +14 | 38 |
| 3 |
Norrkoping
|
22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | +13 | 36 |
| 4 |
Elfsborg
|
23 | 8 | 12 | 3 | +5 | 36 |
| 5 |
Djurgarden
|
21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | +7 | 32 |
| 6 |
Sirius
|
21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 32 |
| 7 |
Hammarby
|
22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | +1 | 32 |
| 8 | Ostersunds | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Orebro | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 |
Mjallby
|
22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 |
Varberg
|
22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -2 | 27 |
| 12 |
AIK
|
21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 24 |
| 13 |
Goteborg
|
22 | 3 | 12 | 7 | -9 | 21 |
| 14 |
Helsingborg
|
22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -11 | 21 |
| 15 |
Kalmar
|
22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 19 |
| 16 | Falkenbergs | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -17 | 16 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Hammarby
AIK
Hammarby
Hammarby
Helsingborg
Goteborg
Hammarby
Hammarby
Kalmar
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.