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Serie A

Referee: Andrea Colombo

Lazio

T T S U U

1–0

Full-time

Juventus

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

43%

14%

Both score Ø 29%

14%

43%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,78 xG 1,49

40% Possession 60%

13 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 14. · Juventus 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+7	+4.5	18
2	Roma	8	6	0	2	+5	+3.0	18
3	Milan	8	5	2	1	+7	+4.6	17
4	Inter	8	5	0	3	+8	+8.2	15
5	Bologna	8	4	2	2	+6	+0.5	14
6	Como	8	3	4	1	+4	+2.1	13
7	Atalanta	8	2	6	0	+6	+4.7	12
8	Juventus	7	3	3	1	+2	+0.5	12
9	Udinese	8	3	3	2	-2	+0.7	12
10	Cremonese	8	2	5	1	-1	-4.9	11
11	Torino	8	3	2	3	-6	-3.1	11
12	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	-1	-3.6	10
13	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-2	-7.3	9
14	Lazio	7	2	2	3	+3	-1.3	8
15	Parma	8	1	4	3	-4	-1.6	7
16	Lecce	8	1	3	4	-6	-4.6	6
17	Verona	8	0	5	3	-7	+0.9	5
18	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-5	+0.3	4
19	Pisa	8	0	4	4	-7	-5.1	4
20	Genoa	8	0	3	5	-7	+1.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+5	-0.2	12
2	Milan	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.4	10
3	Inter	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
4	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.1	9
5	Como	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.0	8
6	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
7	Torino	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.8	7
8	Atalanta	4	1	3	0	+3	+5.0	6
9	Cremonese	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.8	6
10	Roma	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.8	6
11	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
12	Parma	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.7	5
13	Udinese	4	1	2	1	-2	+1.4	5
14	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+3	+2.7	4
15	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-4.2	4
16	Verona	4	0	3	1	-1	+3.0	3
17	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.7	2
18	Lecce	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.1	2
19	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-4	+2.4	2
20	Fiorentina	4	0	1	3	-4	+0.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	4	4	0	0	+4	+1.3	12
2	Milan	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.3	7
3	Udinese	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.7	7
4	Atalanta	4	1	3	0	+3	-0.3	6
5	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+2	+4.7	6
6	Inter	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.8	6
7	Bologna	5	1	2	2	+0	-4.5	5
8	Cagliari	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.1	5
9	Como	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
10	Cremonese	4	1	2	1	-2	-6.7	5
11	Lazio	4	1	1	2	+0	-4.0	4
12	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.4	4
13	Juventus	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.2	4
14	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.5	4
15	Torino	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
16	Fiorentina	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.2	3
17	Parma	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.3	2
18	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.5	2
19	Verona	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.1	2
20	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-3	-0.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.