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Champions League
Referee: L M Branco Godinho
Inter
S S T S S
2–1
Full-time
Kairat Almaty
U U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Kairat Almaty
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
83%
0%
Points per game
2,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,3
1,8
Scored
2,5
0,2
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
-1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/11 matches
Win Ø 64%
100%
27%
Points per game
3,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
67%
27%
Both score Ø 9%
0%
18%
Average goals
3,0
1,9
Scored
3,0
0,7
Conceded
0,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+3,0
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,38 xG 0,15
66% Possession 34%
23 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
9 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Inter Kairat Almaty
6′
🟨 Jorginho
Yann Bisseck ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
20′
1–0 L. Martinez
45′
Half-time 1–0
A. Bonny 🔁
↦ L. Martinez
46′
46′
🔁 E. Tapalov
↦ V. Gromyko
55′
O. Arad 1–1
Nicolò Barella 🟨
58′
P. Sucic 🔁
↦ D. Frattesi
63′
2–1 Carlos Augusto
F. Esposito
67′
M. Thuram 🔁
↦ F. Esposito
71′
H. Calhanoglu 🔁
↦ N. Barella
71′
71′
🔁 O. Baybek
↦ O. Arad
71′
🔁 Ricardinho
↦ Edmilson
76′
🔁 A. Sadybekov
↦ D. Kasabulat
76′
🔁 G. Zaria
↦ Jorginho
M. Akanji 🔁
↦ Y. Bisseck
81′
Full-time 2–1

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

L M Branco Godinho · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Above average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.