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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Timo Gansloweit

Nurnberg

U T S T S

1–1

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nurnberg Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

25%

38%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

63%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

38%

Average goals

2,4

2,1

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

16 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nurnberg 16. · Holstein Kiel 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	9	7	0	2	+8	+0.8	21
2	Paderborn	9	6	2	1	+7	+2.8	20
3	Elversberg	8	6	1	1	+10	-2.9	19
4	Kaiserslautern	9	6	0	3	+7	-0.2	18
5	Darmstadt	8	5	2	1	+8	+0.9	17
6	Hannover	9	5	2	2	+2	+2.5	17
7	Karlsruhe	9	4	3	2	+1	+0.3	15
8	Hertha	9	3	2	4	+1	-1.9	11
9	Preußen Münster	9	3	2	4	-2	-2.5	11
10	Bielefeld	9	3	1	5	+1	+1.7	10
11	Holstein Kiel	8	3	1	4	+1	+0.1	10
12	Greuther Furth	8	3	1	4	-3	-0.2	10
13	Braunschweig	9	3	1	5	-6	-1.1	10
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	1	5	-8	-3.5	10
15	Dresden	9	1	4	4	-4	+1.8	7
16	Nurnberg	8	2	1	5	-5	+0.1	7
17	Bochum	9	2	0	7	-6	+1.8	6
18	Magdeburg	8	1	0	7	-12	-0.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	4	4	0	0	+7	+1.0	12
2	Paderborn	5	4	0	1	+4	+0.4	12
3	Karlsruhe	5	4	0	1	+4	+0.1	12
4	Darmstadt	4	3	1	0	+6	+0.6	10
5	Elversberg	4	3	1	0	+3	-0.4	10
6	Schalke 04	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.7	9
7	Hannover	5	3	0	2	-1	+1.2	9
8	Preußen Münster	5	2	2	1	+2	-2.4	8
9	Bielefeld	5	2	0	3	+2	+2.2	6
10	Bochum	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.4	6
11	Holstein Kiel	4	1	1	2	+0	+0.5	4
12	Braunschweig	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.3	4
13	Hertha	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.2	4
14	Nurnberg	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.4	4
15	Greuther Furth	4	1	1	2	-4	+0.1	4
16	Dresden	4	0	2	2	-2	+1.8	2
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	0	1	4	-7	-1.3	1
18	Magdeburg	4	0	0	4	-8	+1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	5	4	0	1	+6	-1.0	12
2	Elversberg	4	3	0	1	+7	-2.4	9
3	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	3	0	1	-1	-2.2	9
4	Hannover	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.3	8
5	Paderborn	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.4	8
6	Hertha	5	2	1	2	+4	-1.7	7
7	Darmstadt	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.4	7
8	Greuther Furth	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.3	6
9	Holstein Kiel	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.4	6
10	Kaiserslautern	5	2	0	3	+0	-1.2	6
11	Braunschweig	5	2	0	3	-3	-1.3	6
12	Dresden	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.1	5
13	Bielefeld	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.5	4
14	Nurnberg	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.4	3
15	Karlsruhe	4	0	3	1	-3	+0.2	3
16	Preußen Münster	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.1	3
17	Magdeburg	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.8	3
18	Bochum	5	0	0	5	-7	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.