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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Aston Villa

S S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

63%

26%

Points per game

2,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

63%

53%

Both score Ø 45%

58%

32%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,6

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,59 xG 0,89

73% Possession 27%

11 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 3. · Nott'm Forest 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	19	14	3	2	+25	+21.9	45
2	Man City	19	13	2	4	+26	+16.6	41
3	Aston Villa	19	12	3	4	+7	-5.9	39
4	Liverpool	19	10	3	6	+4	+8.2	33
5	Chelsea	19	8	6	5	+11	+5.6	30
6	Man United	19	8	6	5	+4	+8.4	30
7	Sunderland	19	7	8	4	+2	-10.6	29
8	Everton	19	8	4	7	+0	-5.5	28
9	Brentford	19	8	3	8	+2	+2.8	27
10	Crystal Palace	19	7	6	6	+1	+7.5	27
11	Fulham	19	8	3	8	-1	-3.2	27
12	Tottenham	19	7	5	7	+4	-7.3	26
13	Newcastle	19	7	5	7	+2	+6.0	26
14	Brighton	19	6	7	6	+1	+3.0	25
15	Bournemouth	19	5	8	6	-6	+1.1	23
16	Leeds	19	5	6	8	-7	+0.3	21
17	Nott'm Forest	19	5	3	11	-12	-4.6	18
18	West Ham	19	3	5	11	-17	-12.8	14
19	Burnley	19	3	3	13	-17	-20.3	12
20	Wolves	19	0	3	16	-29	-11.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	9	1	0	+21	+13.7	28
2	Man City	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.5	24
3	Aston Villa	9	7	1	1	+8	-1.2	22
4	Brentford	10	6	3	1	+10	+4.7	21
5	Sunderland	10	5	5	0	+8	-3.7	20
6	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+5	+6.2	20
7	Man United	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.1	18
8	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.0	17
9	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.9	16
10	Fulham	9	5	1	3	+5	+1.0	16
11	Bournemouth	9	4	4	1	+5	+6.4	16
12	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+5	+7.3	15
13	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+4	+4.4	15
14	Everton	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.3	14
15	Crystal Palace	10	2	5	3	-2	+7.4	11
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	1	6	-5	+2.3	10
17	Tottenham	9	2	2	5	+0	-0.4	8
18	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-5	-8.0	8
19	West Ham	10	2	1	7	-11	-5.4	7
20	Wolves	9	0	1	8	-16	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+4	-6.8	18
2	Man City	10	5	2	3	+7	+5.0	17
3	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+4	+8.1	17
4	Aston Villa	10	5	2	3	-1	-4.7	17
5	Crystal Palace	9	5	1	3	+3	+0.2	16
6	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+7	+1.2	15
7	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.2	14
8	Liverpool	9	4	1	4	-1	+2.0	13
9	Man United	9	3	3	3	-1	-0.7	12
10	Fulham	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.2	11
11	Newcastle	10	2	3	5	-2	+0.1	9
12	Brighton	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.1	9
13	Sunderland	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.9	9
14	Nott'm Forest	9	2	2	5	-7	-6.9	8
15	West Ham	9	1	4	4	-6	-7.4	7
16	Bournemouth	10	1	4	5	-11	-5.3	7
17	Brentford	9	2	0	7	-8	-1.8	6
18	Leeds	10	1	3	6	-12	-7.0	6
19	Burnley	9	1	1	7	-12	-12.3	4
20	Wolves	10	0	2	8	-13	-7.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.