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Europa League
Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro
Nott'm Forest
U U S S S
1–0
Full-time
Aston Villa
S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
2,5
2,3
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 14/12 matches
Win Ø 71%
50%
92%
Points per game
1,7
2,8
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
57%
50%
Both score Ø 43%
43%
42%
Average goals
2,5
2,6
Scored
1,6
2,0
Conceded
0,9
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,56 xG 0,79
50% Possession 50%
11 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 7
2 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Apr -26 Nott'm Forest – Aston Villa 1–1 3. Jan -26 Aston Villa – Nott'm Forest 3–1 5. Apr -25 Aston Villa – Nott'm Forest 2–1 14. Dec -24 Nott'm Forest – Aston Villa 2–1 24. Feb -24 Aston Villa – Nott'm Forest 4–2

Match report

Nott'm Forest Aston Villa
Half-time 0–0
55′
🔁 L. Bogarde
↦ A. Onana
Omari Hutchinson ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
69′
1–0 C. Wood ⚽
71′
Z. Abbott 🔁
↦ O. Aina
75′
78′
🟨 Youri Tielemans
78′
🔁 Douglas Luiz
↦ L. Digne
79′
🔁 I. Maatsen
↦ E. Buendia
79′
🔁 J. Sancho
↦ J. McGinn
R. Yates 🔁
↦ Igor Jesus
90′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Nott'm Forest

4-4-2
27 S. Ortega G
34 O. Aina D
31 N. Milenkovic D
4 Morato D
3 N. Williams D
21 O. Hutchinson M
16 N. Dominguez M
8 E. Anderson M
10 M. Gibbs-White M
19 Igor Jesus F
11 C. Wood F
Bench (11)
26 M. Sels
67 K. Willows
22 R. Yates
29 D. Bakwa
24 J. McAtee
77 Z. Blake
20 L. Lucca
65 J. Hanks
44 Z. Abbott
51 A. Whitehall
61 J. Sinclair

Coach: Vitor Pereira

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martinez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
14 P. Torres D
12 L. Digne D
24 A. Onana M
8 Y. Tielemans M
7 J. McGinn M
27 M. Rogers M
10 E. Buendia M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (12)
40 M. Bizot
64 J. Wright
3 V. Lindelof
5 T. Mings
31 L. Bailey
21 Douglas Luiz
22 I. Maatsen
9 H. Elliott
26 L. Bogarde
18 T. Abraham
19 J. Sancho
16 A. Garcia

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Joao Pedro Pinheiro · 221 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.