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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Aston Villa

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 50%

43%

57%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

43%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,03 xG 1,48

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 19

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 5

7 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 7. · Nott'm Forest 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	30	22	7	1	+43	+41.6	73
2	Arsenal	31	17	11	3	+30	+22.8	62
3	Nott'm Forest	30	17	6	7	+15	+1.7	57
4	Chelsea	30	15	7	8	+17	+17.2	52
5	Man City	30	15	6	9	+17	+14.4	51
6	Newcastle	29	15	5	9	+10	+10.4	50
7	Aston Villa	30	13	9	8	-1	+2.0	48
8	Brighton	31	12	11	8	+2	+2.9	47
9	Bournemouth	31	12	9	10	+11	+16.4	45
10	Fulham	30	12	9	9	+4	+5.3	45
11	Crystal Palace	30	11	10	9	+4	+8.1	43
12	Brentford	30	12	5	13	+4	-0.3	41
13	Man United	30	10	7	13	-4	-5.2	37
14	Everton	31	7	14	10	-5	-5.0	35
15	West Ham	31	9	8	14	-17	-11.3	35
16	Tottenham	30	10	4	16	+11	-1.4	34
17	Wolves	31	9	5	17	-16	-12.8	32
18	Ipswich	31	4	8	19	-34	-33.8	20
19	Leicester	30	4	5	21	-42	-31.0	17
20	Southampton	30	2	4	24	-49	-42.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	2	1	+21	+20.6	38
2	Arsenal	15	10	4	1	+18	+16.4	34
3	Nott'm Forest	15	9	4	2	+14	+4.4	31
4	Chelsea	15	9	4	2	+13	+14.8	31
5	Man City	15	9	3	3	+13	+13.4	30
6	Aston Villa	15	7	7	1	+7	+11.7	28
7	Newcastle	14	8	2	4	+8	+6.2	26
8	Brentford	15	7	3	5	+3	+3.7	24
9	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+2	+4.2	24
10	Fulham	15	6	5	4	+1	+2.1	23
11	Bournemouth	15	6	3	6	+5	+9.5	21
12	Everton	16	4	8	4	+3	+0.7	20
13	Man United	15	6	2	7	-4	-0.6	20
14	Crystal Palace	16	5	5	6	-4	+6.5	20
15	Tottenham	15	5	3	7	+4	-0.6	18
16	West Ham	16	5	3	8	-10	-8.6	18
17	Wolves	15	4	2	9	-8	-6.1	14
18	Leicester	15	2	3	10	-19	-11.6	9
19	Ipswich	16	1	4	11	-23	-13.9	7
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-29	-22.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	10	5	0	+22	+21.0	35
2	Arsenal	16	7	7	2	+12	+6.5	28
3	Nott'm Forest	15	8	2	5	+1	-2.7	26
4	Bournemouth	16	6	6	4	+6	+6.9	24
5	Newcastle	15	7	3	5	+2	+4.3	24
6	Crystal Palace	14	6	5	3	+8	+1.7	23
7	Brighton	16	6	5	5	+0	-1.4	23
8	Fulham	15	6	4	5	+3	+3.2	22
9	Chelsea	15	6	3	6	+4	+2.4	21
10	Man City	15	6	3	6	+4	+1.0	21
11	Aston Villa	15	6	2	7	-8	-9.7	20
12	Wolves	16	5	3	8	-8	-6.8	18
13	Brentford	15	5	2	8	+1	-4.0	17
14	Man United	15	4	5	6	+0	-4.6	17
15	West Ham	15	4	5	6	-7	-2.6	17
16	Tottenham	15	5	1	9	+7	-0.8	16
17	Everton	15	3	6	6	-8	-5.7	15
18	Ipswich	15	3	4	8	-11	-19.9	13
19	Leicester	15	2	2	11	-23	-19.4	8
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-20	-19.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.