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Ligue 1

Referee: E Wattellier

Toulouse

S U S S S

3–6

Full-time

Paris SG

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,8

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,5

1,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–4

2,22 xG 2,62

24% Possession 76%

14 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 3. · Paris SG 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.3	7
2	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.2	6
3	Toulouse	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.1	6
4	Lens	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.1	6
5	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.9	6
6	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
7	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
8	Monaco	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.5	3
9	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
10	Angers	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.6	3
11	Nantes	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.8	3
12	Auxerre	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.2	3
13	Lorient	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.9	3
14	Rennes	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.2	3
15	Brest	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.8	1
16	Le Havre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.3	0
17	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
18	Metz	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
2	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
3	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
4	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
6	Lens	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
7	Angers	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
8	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
9	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
10	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
11	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
12	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
13	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.5	3
14	Lorient	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.0	3
15	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
16	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
17	Metz	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.6	4
2	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
3	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
4	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
5	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
6	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
7	Marseille	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
8	Monaco	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
9	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
10	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
11	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
12	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
13	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
14	Metz	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
15	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
16	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0
17	Rennes	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.