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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Toulouse

T T T U S

1–1

Full-time

Lens

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 38%

31%

44%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

34%

Both score Ø 46%

53%

38%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,01 xG 0,79

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Lens 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	24	6	2	+52	+55.6	78
2	Marseille	32	18	5	9	+23	+13.9	59
3	Monaco	32	17	7	8	+24	+39.9	58
4	Nice	32	16	9	7	+21	+18.3	57
5	Lille	32	16	9	7	+17	+9.4	57
6	Strasbourg	32	16	9	7	+14	-7.7	57
7	Lyon	32	16	6	10	+19	+11.8	54
8	Lens	32	14	6	12	-1	+6.3	48
9	Brest	32	14	5	13	-3	-7.6	47
10	Auxerre	32	11	8	13	-1	-14.0	41
11	Rennes	32	12	2	18	+1	+5.4	38
12	Toulouse	32	10	8	14	+0	+10.4	38
13	Reims	32	8	9	15	-11	-20.3	33
14	Angers	32	9	6	17	-20	-18.4	33
15	Nantes	32	7	11	14	-16	-18.8	32
16	Le Havre	32	9	4	19	-30	-21.2	31
17	St Etienne	32	7	6	19	-39	-35.9	27
18	Montpellier	32	4	4	24	-50	-27.1	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+27	+30.7	41
2	Monaco	16	11	3	2	+20	+24.6	36
3	Strasbourg	16	10	5	1	+14	-1.4	35
4	Nice	16	10	4	2	+17	+16.5	34
5	Lille	16	10	4	2	+12	+2.8	34
6	Lyon	16	10	2	4	+14	+10.0	32
7	Marseille	16	9	4	3	+16	+15.1	31
8	Brest	16	9	3	4	+8	-0.3	30
9	Auxerre	16	7	5	4	+7	-0.1	26
10	Rennes	16	8	1	7	+6	+5.6	25
11	St Etienne	16	6	3	7	-8	-8.1	21
12	Lens	16	6	2	8	-7	+6.7	20
13	Toulouse	16	5	4	7	-2	+2.7	19
14	Nantes	16	4	6	6	-2	-0.2	18
15	Reims	16	4	4	8	-6	-7.3	16
16	Angers	16	4	2	10	-16	-12.4	14
17	Montpellier	16	3	4	9	-21	-5.7	13
18	Le Havre	16	3	2	11	-24	-12.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	11	4	1	+25	+24.9	37
2	Marseille	16	9	1	6	+7	-1.2	28
3	Lens	16	8	4	4	+6	-0.4	28
4	Lille	16	6	5	5	+5	+6.5	23
5	Nice	16	6	5	5	+4	+1.8	23
6	Lyon	16	6	4	6	+5	+1.8	22
7	Monaco	16	6	4	6	+4	+15.3	22
8	Strasbourg	16	6	4	6	+0	-6.3	22
9	Le Havre	16	6	2	8	-6	-8.3	20
10	Toulouse	16	5	4	7	+2	+7.7	19
11	Angers	16	5	4	7	-4	-6.1	19
12	Reims	16	4	5	7	-5	-12.9	17
13	Brest	16	5	2	9	-11	-7.3	17
14	Auxerre	16	4	3	9	-8	-13.9	15
15	Nantes	16	3	5	8	-14	-18.6	14
16	Rennes	16	4	1	11	-5	-0.2	13
17	St Etienne	16	1	3	12	-31	-27.9	6
18	Montpellier	16	1	0	15	-29	-21.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.