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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Toulouse

T T T T U

2–1

Full-time

Rennes

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Rennes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 34%

29%

39%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

48%

58%

Both score Ø 49%

52%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,81 xG 1,48

38% Possession 62%

9 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Rennes 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	24	6	2	+52	+55.6	78
2	Marseille	31	18	4	9	+23	+13.1	58
3	Nice	32	16	9	7	+21	+18.3	57
4	Strasbourg	32	16	9	7	+14	-7.7	57
5	Lille	31	16	8	7	+17	+10.2	56
6	Monaco	31	16	7	8	+22	+38.5	55
7	Lyon	31	16	6	9	+20	+11.5	54
8	Lens	31	13	6	12	-2	+6.6	45
9	Brest	31	13	5	13	-4	-8.1	44
10	Auxerre	31	11	8	12	+0	-12.7	41
11	Rennes	31	12	2	17	+2	+4.8	38
12	Toulouse	31	9	8	14	-1	+11.1	35
13	Reims	32	8	9	15	-11	-20.3	33
14	Nantes	31	7	11	13	-15	-18.2	32
15	Angers	31	8	6	17	-21	-19.0	30
16	Le Havre	31	8	4	19	-31	-22.5	28
17	St Etienne	31	7	6	18	-37	-34.6	27
18	Montpellier	31	4	4	23	-49	-26.6	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+27	+30.7	41
2	Monaco	16	11	3	2	+20	+24.6	36
3	Strasbourg	16	10	5	1	+14	-1.4	35
4	Nice	16	10	4	2	+17	+16.5	34
5	Lille	15	10	3	2	+12	+3.7	33
6	Lyon	15	10	2	3	+15	+9.7	32
7	Marseille	16	9	4	3	+16	+15.1	31
8	Brest	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
9	Auxerre	15	7	5	3	+8	+1.2	26
10	Rennes	16	8	1	7	+6	+5.6	25
11	St Etienne	15	6	3	6	-6	-6.7	21
12	Lens	16	6	2	8	-7	+6.7	20
13	Nantes	15	4	6	5	-1	+0.4	18
14	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-3	+3.4	16
15	Reims	16	4	4	8	-6	-7.3	16
16	Angers	16	4	2	10	-16	-12.4	14
17	Montpellier	16	3	4	9	-21	-5.7	13
18	Le Havre	16	3	2	11	-24	-12.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	11	4	1	+25	+24.9	37
2	Marseille	15	9	0	6	+7	-2.1	27
3	Lens	15	7	4	4	+5	-0.1	25
4	Lille	16	6	5	5	+5	+6.5	23
5	Nice	16	6	5	5	+4	+1.8	23
6	Lyon	16	6	4	6	+5	+1.8	22
7	Strasbourg	16	6	4	6	+0	-6.3	22
8	Monaco	15	5	4	6	+2	+13.9	19
9	Toulouse	16	5	4	7	+2	+7.7	19
10	Reims	16	4	5	7	-5	-12.9	17
11	Le Havre	15	5	2	8	-7	-9.6	17
12	Brest	16	5	2	9	-11	-7.3	17
13	Angers	15	4	4	7	-5	-6.7	16
14	Auxerre	16	4	3	9	-8	-13.9	15
15	Nantes	16	3	5	8	-14	-18.6	14
16	Rennes	15	4	1	10	-4	-0.9	13
17	St Etienne	16	1	3	12	-31	-27.9	6
18	Montpellier	15	1	0	14	-28	-20.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.