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Eredivisie

Referee: I Oostrom

Excelsior

S T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Twente

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Twente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,8

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

3,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,0

Scored

0,7

Conceded

3,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-3,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,37 xG 2,52

30% Possession 70%

8 Shots 27

3 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 12

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 17. · Twente 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nijmegen	3	3	0	0	+11	+6.9	9
2	PSV Eindhoven	4	3	0	1	+7	+2.7	9
3	Ajax	4	2	2	0	+4	+4.7	8
4	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.8	6
5	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.6	6
6	Zwolle	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
7	Groningen	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
8	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	-1	-1.3	6
9	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.0	4
10	Volendam	4	0	4	0	+0	-3.7	4
11	Telstar	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.8	4
12	Twente	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.9	3
13	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	3	1	-3	-2.9	3
14	NAC Breda	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.6	3
15	Heerenveen	4	0	2	2	-2	+4.0	2
16	For Sittard	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
17	Excelsior	3	0	0	3	-9	-3.4	0
18	Heracles	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+8	+5.2	6
2	Utrecht	2	2	0	0	+7	+1.9	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.9	6
4	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.0	6
5	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.9	6
6	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
7	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
8	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
9	NAC Breda	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
10	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
11	Volendam	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
12	Heerenveen	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.7	2
13	For Sittard	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
14	Telstar	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
15	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.2	1
16	Excelsior	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
17	Twente	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
18	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
2	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
3	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
4	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
5	Twente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
6	Telstar	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
7	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.4	3
8	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.7	2
9	Volendam	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
10	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.7	2
11	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Heerenveen	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
13	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
14	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
15	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.2	0
16	NAC Breda	2	0	0	2	-5	-5.9	0
17	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-8	-1.9	0
18	Heracles	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.