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Ligue 1

Referee: F Batta

Paris SG

S S U T T

1–3

Full-time

Toulouse

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 48%

65%

31%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

65%

59%

Both score Ø 64%

65%

63%

Average goals

3,4

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,18 xG 1,56

64% Possession 36%

15 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Toulouse 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	20	10	1	+47	+27.5	70
2	Monaco	32	18	7	7	+20	+10.8	61
3	Brest	33	16	10	7	+16	+8.4	58
4	Lille	32	15	10	7	+17	+11.8	55
5	Nice	32	15	9	8	+12	+14.6	54
6	Lens	32	14	7	11	+8	+3.7	49
7	Lyon	32	14	5	13	-8	-3.5	47
8	Rennes	32	12	9	11	+8	+11.0	45
9	Marseille	31	11	11	9	+9	+18.4	44
10	Montpellier	32	10	11	11	-3	+0.9	41
11	Reims	32	11	8	13	-7	-0.8	41
12	Toulouse	32	10	10	12	-3	-6.2	40
13	Strasbourg	32	9	9	14	-12	-3.0	36
14	Nantes	32	9	6	17	-20	-14.3	33
15	Le Havre	33	7	11	15	-10	-13.6	32
16	Metz	32	8	5	19	-20	-20.3	29
17	Lorient	32	6	8	18	-26	-19.8	26
18	Clermont	32	5	10	17	-28	-25.6	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	16	11	3	2	+20	+16.2	36
2	Paris SG	16	9	6	1	+22	+19.8	33
3	Marseille	16	9	6	1	+16	+16.3	33
4	Brest	17	8	7	2	+11	+12.7	31
5	Nice	16	9	4	3	+11	+11.2	31
6	Monaco	16	9	3	4	+12	+11.2	30
7	Lens	16	9	3	4	+9	+7.8	30
8	Rennes	16	7	3	6	+8	+12.4	24
9	Lyon	16	6	4	6	-5	+1.6	22
10	Reims	15	6	3	6	-1	+4.4	21
11	Strasbourg	16	6	3	7	-2	+2.0	21
12	Le Havre	16	6	2	8	+0	+3.0	20
13	Montpellier	16	3	9	4	-1	+7.7	18
14	Toulouse	16	3	7	6	-1	+4.9	16
15	Clermont	16	3	5	8	-12	-6.2	14
16	Lorient	16	3	4	9	-9	-6.3	13
17	Metz	16	3	3	10	-8	-3.8	12
18	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	-7.7	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	4	0	+25	+7.8	37
2	Monaco	16	9	4	3	+8	-0.4	31
3	Brest	16	8	3	5	+5	-4.4	27
4	Lyon	16	8	1	7	-3	-5.1	25
5	Toulouse	16	7	3	6	-2	-11.1	24
6	Nice	16	6	5	5	+1	+3.5	23
7	Montpellier	16	7	2	7	-2	-6.7	23
8	Rennes	16	5	6	5	+0	-1.4	21
9	Nantes	16	6	3	7	-8	-6.6	21
10	Reims	17	5	5	7	-6	-5.2	20
11	Lens	16	5	4	7	-1	-4.1	19
12	Lille	16	4	7	5	-3	-4.4	19
13	Metz	16	5	2	9	-12	-16.5	17
14	Strasbourg	16	3	6	7	-10	-5.0	15
15	Lorient	16	3	4	9	-17	-13.5	13
16	Le Havre	17	1	9	7	-10	-16.6	12
17	Marseille	15	2	5	8	-7	+2.1	11
18	Clermont	16	2	5	9	-16	-19.4	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.