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Primeira Liga

Referee: J Pinheiro

Casa Pia

S T T S T

0–2

Full-time

Nacional

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,66 xG 1,24

62% Possession 38%

9 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 22

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 10. · Nacional 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+11	+7.0	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.0	9
3	Moreirense	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
4	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+6	+2.2	7
5	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.2	7
6	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
7	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.6	6
8	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-4	-3.5	4
9	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.4	3
10	Casa Pia	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.6	3
11	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.4	2
12	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.1	2
13	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
14	AVS	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.1	1
15	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.5	1
16	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.3	1
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.6	6
2	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.2	4
5	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+6	+2.6	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
8	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
9	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
10	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
12	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
13	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
14	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
15	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.4	0
16	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
17	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.9	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.4	6
2	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.9	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
5	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
6	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
7	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.2	3
9	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
10	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
12	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.4	1
13	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.9	1
14	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
15	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.8	0
18	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-6	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.