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2. Bundesliga

Referee: M Jollenbeck

Paderborn

U S S S U

2–3

Full-time

Schalke 04

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Schalke 04

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 59%

57%

60%

Points per game

1,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

60%

47%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,32 xG 2,28

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paderborn 2. · Schalke 04 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	30	18	7	5	+19	+14.8	61
2	Paderborn	30	17	7	6	+17	+15.4	58
3	Hannover	31	16	9	6	+16	+12.6	57
4	Elversberg	31	16	8	7	+20	+7.1	56
5	Darmstadt	31	13	12	6	+15	+2.8	51
6	Hertha	31	13	9	9	+8	-2.1	48
7	Kaiserslautern	31	14	4	13	+3	-1.1	46
8	Karlsruhe	31	11	7	13	-11	-20.6	40
9	Nurnberg	30	10	8	12	-2	+0.3	38
10	Holstein Kiel	31	10	8	13	-3	-11.6	38
11	Bochum	30	9	9	12	+0	+4.2	36
12	Dresden	31	9	8	14	+0	+1.0	35
13	Bielefeld	31	9	8	14	-1	+1.8	35
14	Braunschweig	31	9	7	15	-16	-2.3	34
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	31	10	4	17	-18	-5.6	34
16	Magdeburg	30	10	3	17	-7	+7.6	33
17	Greuther Furth	30	9	6	15	-20	-10.7	33
18	Preußen Münster	31	6	10	15	-20	-13.5	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	15	11	3	1	+13	+8.6	36
2	Darmstadt	16	10	5	1	+17	+8.6	35
3	Paderborn	15	10	2	3	+9	+11.5	32
4	Kaiserslautern	16	10	1	5	+14	+4.7	31
5	Elversberg	15	9	4	2	+14	+5.7	31
6	Karlsruhe	15	8	3	4	+5	-5.6	27
7	Bochum	15	7	4	4	+8	+10.2	25
8	Nurnberg	15	7	4	4	+6	+2.9	25
9	Hannover	15	7	4	4	+4	+7.9	25
10	Bielefeld	15	6	4	5	+8	+12.4	22
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	6	3	7	-6	-1.3	21
12	Hertha	16	5	5	6	-3	+0.7	20
13	Braunschweig	16	5	5	6	-7	+3.4	20
14	Holstein Kiel	15	5	4	6	+3	+0.1	19
15	Greuther Furth	15	5	4	6	-8	-4.1	19
16	Dresden	15	5	3	7	+6	+7.8	18
17	Preußen Münster	16	3	7	6	-4	-2.6	16
18	Magdeburg	15	4	2	9	-5	+7.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	16	9	5	2	+12	+4.8	32
2	Hertha	15	8	4	3	+11	-2.8	28
3	Paderborn	15	7	5	3	+8	+3.9	26
4	Elversberg	16	7	4	5	+6	+1.4	25
5	Schalke 04	15	7	4	4	+6	+6.2	25
6	Magdeburg	15	6	1	8	-2	+0.1	19
7	Holstein Kiel	16	5	4	7	-6	-11.7	19
8	Dresden	16	4	5	7	-6	-6.8	17
9	Darmstadt	15	3	7	5	-2	-5.8	16
10	Kaiserslautern	15	4	3	8	-11	-5.8	15
11	Braunschweig	15	4	2	9	-9	-5.6	14
12	Greuther Furth	15	4	2	9	-12	-6.6	14
13	Nurnberg	15	3	4	8	-8	-2.7	13
14	Bielefeld	16	3	4	9	-9	-10.6	13
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	4	1	10	-12	-4.3	13
16	Karlsruhe	16	3	4	9	-16	-15.1	13
17	Preußen Münster	15	3	3	9	-16	-11.0	12
18	Bochum	15	2	5	8	-8	-6.0	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.