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Bundesliga

Referee: T Gerach

Freiburg

S S T S S

0–3

Full-time

St Pauli

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

2,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,3

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,17 xG 1,14

73% Possession 27%

6 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

7 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 4. · St Pauli 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+13	+7.1	12
2	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.8	10
3	Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+4	+6.3	9
4	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+4	+4.2	9
5	Ein Frankfurt	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.6	9
6	Union Berlin	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.2	8
7	RB Leipzig	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.0	8
8	Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+4	+3.2	7
9	Heidenheim	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.2	6
10	Mainz	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.2	5
11	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	-4	-1.9	5
12	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.0	4
13	Wolfsburg	4	1	0	3	-1	-2.4	3
14	M'gladbach	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
15	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.3	3
16	St Pauli	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.1	1
17	Bochum	5	0	1	4	-6	-7.4	1
18	Holstein Kiel	4	0	1	3	-8	-4.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.3	9
2	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
3	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+4.1	6
4	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
5	Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.3	4
6	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.3	4
7	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
8	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.9	3
12	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
13	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
14	St Pauli	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
15	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-5	-3.2	1
16	Wolfsburg	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
17	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+11	+6.5	9
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.9	6
3	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.2	4
4	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
5	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
6	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.1	3
7	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
8	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
9	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
10	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
11	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
12	Union Berlin	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
13	Holstein Kiel	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
14	Dortmund	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.5	1
15	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0
16	St Pauli	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.6	0
17	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0
18	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.