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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Mainz

T T T T U

1–3

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

4,7

Scored

0,8

3,7

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+2,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

71%

Points per game

0,3

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 93%

86%

100%

Both score Ø 64%

71%

57%

Average goals

3,6

4,1

Scored

0,9

3,3

Conceded

2,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,9

+2,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,18 xG 1,35

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 17. · Bayern Munich 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	8	7	1	0	+18	+9.8	22
2	Stuttgart	8	7	0	1	+17	+9.2	21
3	Dortmund	8	6	2	0	+9	+7.0	20
4	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+17	+15.5	17
5	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+12	+1.3	17
6	Hoffenheim	8	5	0	3	+3	+0.4	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	4	1	+3	-0.3	13
8	Freiburg	8	4	1	3	-5	-0.8	13
9	Wolfsburg	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.3	12
10	Heidenheim	7	2	1	4	-5	-8.7	7
11	Darmstadt	8	2	1	5	-9	-6.1	7
12	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-3	+1.6	6
13	Werder Bremen	8	2	0	6	-6	-4.1	6
14	Union Berlin	8	2	0	6	-6	-1.0	6
15	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-7	-0.8	5
16	Bochum	8	0	4	4	-15	-11.2	4
17	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-13	-5.0	2
18	FC Koln	7	0	1	6	-10	-7.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+5	+5.7	13
2	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+14	+6.8	12
3	Leverkusen	4	4	0	0	+11	+7.3	12
4	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+12	+9.6	10
5	Wolfsburg	4	3	0	1	+4	+1.7	9
6	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.2	9
7	RB Leipzig	4	2	2	0	+7	+0.5	8
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.2	8
9	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	-2.6	6
10	Werder Bremen	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.3	6
11	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.0	5
12	Darmstadt	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.0	4
13	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.3	3
14	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.5	3
15	Bochum	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
16	M'gladbach	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.6	1
17	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.1	1
18	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.8	12
2	Leverkusen	4	3	1	0	+7	+2.5	10
3	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	+5	+0.8	9
4	Stuttgart	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.5	9
5	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+5	+6.0	7
6	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
7	M'gladbach	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.2	5
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.5	5
9	Freiburg	4	1	1	2	-7	-2.0	4
10	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-1	+1.5	3
11	Wolfsburg	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.4	3
12	Darmstadt	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
13	Bochum	5	0	2	3	-13	-11.0	2
14	FC Koln	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.9	1
15	Heidenheim	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
16	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-8	-3.9	1
17	Werder Bremen	4	0	0	4	-6	-3.8	0
18	Augsburg	3	0	0	3	-7	-1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.