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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Augsburg

T U T U T

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Augsburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

2,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

100%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

4,8

3,8

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,75 xG 0,48

41% Possession 59%

6 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Augsburg 15. · Mainz 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	5	4	0	1	+10	+5.3	12
2	Leverkusen	4	3	1	0	+8	+3.8	10
3	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+7	+6.6	10
4	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	+9	+1.2	9
5	Hoffenheim	4	3	0	1	+4	-0.2	9
6	Wolfsburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.3	9
7	Dortmund	4	2	2	0	+3	+3.7	8
8	Union Berlin	4	2	0	2	+2	-1.1	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.2	6
10	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	-5	+0.5	6
11	Heidenheim	4	1	1	2	-1	-3.4	4
12	Werder Bremen	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.7	3
13	Bochum	4	0	3	1	-5	-2.0	3
14	M'gladbach	4	0	2	2	-4	-1.5	2
15	Augsburg	4	0	2	2	-5	-0.2	2
16	FC Koln	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.0	1
17	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.3	1
18	Darmstadt	5	0	1	4	-10	-7.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+12	+5.3	9
2	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+7	+0.0	6
3	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.3	6
4	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
5	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
6	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
8	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.2	3
9	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.6	3
10	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
11	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
12	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
13	Augsburg	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.4	2
14	Bochum	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
15	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
16	Darmstadt	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.1	1
17	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.3	6
2	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
3	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.4	4
4	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
5	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.1	3
6	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.3	3
7	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.2	3
8	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.0	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-4	+0.4	3
10	M'gladbach	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.0	2
11	Ein Frankfurt	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
12	FC Koln	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
13	Heidenheim	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.2	1
14	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-5	-3.0	1
15	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
17	Darmstadt	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.8	0
18	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-7	-1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.