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Bundesliga
Referee: C Jäeger
Sturm Graz
T U S S S
2–1
Full-time
Hartberg
S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Hartberg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
2,3
2,0
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 55%
70%
40%
Points per game
2,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
50%
70%
Both score Ø 45%
50%
40%
Average goals
2,4
2,9
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
0,6
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,1
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

48% Possession 52%
14 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sturm Graz 1. · Hartberg 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sturm Graz 10 7 3 0 +12 24
2 Salzburg 10 7 2 1 +17 23
3 LASK 10 5 3 2 +6 18
4 Hartberg 10 4 4 2 +1 16
5 A. Klagenfurt 10 3 6 1 +4 15
6 SK Rapid 10 3 5 2 +11 14
7 Wolfsberger AC 10 3 4 3 -2 13
8 Altach 10 3 3 4 -3 12
9 Austria Vienna 10 2 3 5 -3 9
10 BW Linz 10 2 3 5 -12 9
11 Tirol 10 1 2 7 -12 5
12 A. Lustenau 10 0 2 8 -19 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sturm Graz Hartberg
4′
C. Lang 0–1
D. Frieser
1–1 S. Jatta
O. Kiteishvili
13′
16′
🟨 Jurgen Heil
2–1 A. Prass
42′
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 R. Providence
↦ D. Avdijaj
Otar Kiteishvili 🟨
61′
65′
🔁 M. Fillafer
↦ D. Frieser
S. Włodarczyk 🔁
↦ S. Jatta
67′
72′
🟨 Dominik Prokop
73′
🟨 Mamadou Sangare
S. Hierländer 🔁
↦ D. Lavalée
78′
78′
🔁 T. Kainz
↦ M. Sangaré
Javi Serrano 🔁
↦ A. Prass
85′
M. Fuseini 🔁
↦ M. Sarkaria
85′
85′
🔁 C. Urdl
↦ O. Diakité
85′
🔁 A. Brückner
↦ J. Heil
Javier Serrano 🟨
93′
93′
🟨 Tobias Kainz
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-2-3-1
1 K. Scherpen G
22 J. Gazibegović D
42 D. Affengruber D
5 G. Wüthrich D
28 D. Schnegg D
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
24 D. Lavalée M
11 M. Sarkaria M
8 A. Prass M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
20 S. Jatta F
Bench (7)
9 S. Włodarczyk
25 S. Hierländer
14 Javi Serrano
29 M. Fuseini
31 L. Marić
2 M. Johnston
19 T. Horvat

Coach: C. Ilzer

Hartberg

4-4-2
1 R. Sallinger G
28 J. Heil D
14 P. Komposch D
5 I. Bowat D
20 M. Pfeifer D
10 D. Avdijaj M
32 O. Diakité M
45 M. Sangaré M
27 D. Prokop M
33 D. Frieser F
26 C. Lang F
Bench (7)
70 R. Providence
37 M. Fillafer
23 T. Kainz
8 C. Urdl
3 A. Brückner
12 M. Steinwender
39 T. Knoflach

Coach: M. Schopp

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Jäeger · 44 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,39 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.