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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

Mainz

U U S U U

3–1

Full-time

Bayern Munich

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 50%

39%

61%

Points per game

1,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

57%

61%

Both score Ø 64%

64%

Average goals

3,0

3,9

Scored

1,6

2,8

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,57 xG 1,93

26% Possession 74%

13 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 8. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	17	8	3	+48	+9.1	59
2	Dortmund	28	18	3	7	+23	+9.8	57
3	Union Berlin	28	15	7	6	+12	-4.3	52
4	RB Leipzig	28	15	6	7	+18	+7.6	51
5	Freiburg	28	14	8	6	+4	-6.0	50
6	Leverkusen	28	13	5	10	+10	+10.0	44
7	Ein Frankfurt	28	11	9	8	+8	-0.2	42
8	Mainz	28	11	9	8	+7	+2.2	42
9	Wolfsburg	28	10	10	8	+10	+6.4	40
10	M'gladbach	28	9	9	10	-2	-2.0	36
11	FC Koln	28	7	11	10	-9	+0.2	32
12	Werder Bremen	28	9	5	14	-11	-5.1	32
13	Augsburg	29	8	6	15	-16	-8.6	30
14	Hoffenheim	28	8	5	15	-9	-3.2	29
15	Bochum	28	8	3	17	-30	-5.6	27
16	Stuttgart	29	5	10	14	-15	-0.3	25
17	Schalke 04	28	5	9	14	-26	-2.6	24
18	Hertha	28	5	7	16	-22	-7.2	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	13	11	1	1	+25	+7.0	34
2	Bayern Munich	14	9	5	0	+30	+9.9	32
3	RB Leipzig	14	10	2	2	+16	-0.8	32
4	Union Berlin	14	9	5	0	+16	-0.5	32
5	Freiburg	14	8	4	2	+10	-2.4	28
6	M'gladbach	14	8	3	3	+12	+3.8	27
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	4	3	+13	+5.4	25
8	Leverkusen	14	7	2	5	+11	+5.7	23
9	Mainz	14	5	6	3	+8	+2.0	21
10	FC Koln	14	5	5	4	+7	+3.2	20
11	Wolfsburg	14	4	7	3	+6	+5.4	19
12	Bochum	13	6	1	6	-4	+0.7	19
13	Augsburg	15	5	4	6	-6	-2.7	19
14	Hertha	14	4	5	5	-2	-1.6	17
15	Hoffenheim	14	5	2	7	-3	+2.6	17
16	Stuttgart	14	4	4	6	+0	+0.8	16
17	Werder Bremen	15	5	1	9	-1	+1.4	16
18	Schalke 04	15	4	4	7	-14	-2.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	8	3	3	+18	-0.8	27
2	Dortmund	15	7	2	6	-2	+2.7	23
3	Freiburg	14	6	4	4	-6	-3.6	22
4	Wolfsburg	14	6	3	5	+4	+0.9	21
5	Mainz	14	6	3	5	-1	+0.2	21
6	Leverkusen	14	6	3	5	-1	+4.3	21
7	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	-4	-3.8	20
8	RB Leipzig	14	5	4	5	+2	+8.4	19
9	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	5	5	-5	-5.6	17
10	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-10	-6.6	16
11	Hoffenheim	14	3	3	8	-6	-5.8	12
12	FC Koln	14	2	6	6	-16	-3.0	12
13	Augsburg	14	3	2	9	-10	-5.9	11
14	M'gladbach	14	1	6	7	-14	-5.8	9
15	Stuttgart	15	1	6	8	-15	-1.1	9
16	Schalke 04	13	1	5	7	-12	-0.4	8
17	Bochum	15	2	2	11	-26	-6.4	8
18	Hertha	14	1	2	11	-20	-5.6	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.