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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Felgueiras 1932

S S T S S

1–3

Full-time

Arouca

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Felgueiras 1932 Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 40%

80%

Points per game

2,4

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

100%

17%

Both score Ø 65%

80%

50%

Average goals

4,0

1,8

Scored

2,8

0,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Felgueiras 1932	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
12	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
13	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
14	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
15	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Leixoes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+12	3
21	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
22	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
23	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
24	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
25	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
27	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
28	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
29	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
31	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
32	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
33	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
35	Vila Meã	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
43	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
57	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
61	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
62	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
63	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
64	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
65	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
66	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
67	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
68	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
69	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
70	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
71	Atlético Malveira	2	0	2	0	+0	2
72	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
73	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
83	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
84	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
85	SC Covilha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
86	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
87	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
127	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
128	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
129	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
130	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
131	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
132	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
133	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
134	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
135	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
136	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
4	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
7	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
9	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
32	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Leixoes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
41	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
42	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
73	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
74	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
75	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
76	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
77	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
2	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+12	3
7	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
8	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
12	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
47	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
81	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
83	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
84	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
85	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.