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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Nice

S S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Marseille

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

13%

63%

Both score Ø 44%

38%

50%

Average goals

1,6

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,57 xG 1,07

50% Possession 50%

10 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 6

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nice 3. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	5	3	1	+13	+12.3	18
2	Monaco	8	5	2	1	+10	+5.3	17
3	Nice	8	4	4	0	+5	+5.9	16
4	Brest	8	4	3	1	+2	+2.2	15
5	Reims	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.1	13
6	Marseille	8	3	3	2	+1	+6.9	12
7	Lille	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.4	12
8	Rennes	8	2	5	1	+4	+4.2	11
9	Nantes	8	3	2	3	-1	-5.5	11
10	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	+1	-7.3	10
11	Le Havre	9	2	4	3	-2	-5.2	10
12	Strasbourg	9	3	1	5	-6	-3.0	10
13	Montpellier	7	2	3	2	+3	+2.9	9
14	Lens	9	2	3	4	-5	+0.6	9
15	Metz	8	2	2	4	-7	-7.1	8
16	Lorient	8	1	4	3	-5	-6.4	7
17	Lyon	8	0	3	5	-10	-8.4	3
18	Clermont	7	0	2	5	-7	-4.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	3	1	1	+8	+4.8	10
2	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+6	+5.1	10
3	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+6	+1.8	9
4	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+4	+5.5	8
5	Brest	4	2	2	0	+2	+5.2	8
6	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.0	7
7	Le Havre	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.5	7
8	Lille	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.9	6
9	Nice	4	1	3	0	+2	+4.6	6
10	Reims	4	2	0	2	+1	+4.0	6
11	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.4	5
12	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	-3.7	5
13	Lorient	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.3	5
14	Lens	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.5	5
15	Metz	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.3	2
16	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.7	2
17	Lyon	4	0	2	2	-6	-3.8	2
18	Clermont	4	0	1	3	-4	-2.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.2	10
2	Paris SG	4	2	2	0	+5	+7.5	8
3	Monaco	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.5	8
4	Montpellier	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.1	7
5	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.9	7
6	Brest	4	2	1	1	+0	-3.0	7
7	Lille	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.5	6
8	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.8	6
9	Metz	4	2	0	2	-5	-5.8	6
10	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.9	5
11	Lens	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.9	4
12	Rennes	3	0	3	0	+0	-1.3	3
13	Le Havre	4	0	3	1	-3	-6.7	3
14	Strasbourg	4	1	0	3	-7	-5.0	3
15	Lorient	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.1	2
16	Marseille	4	0	2	2	-5	+1.8	2
17	Clermont	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.1	1
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.