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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Nijmegen

U T S T U

1–1

Full-time

Almere City

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Almere City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

75%

63%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

1,6

0,9

Conceded

1,9

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,25 xG 0,88

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 11. · Almere City 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+27	+20.3	27
2	AZ Alkmaar	8	7	1	0	+18	+9.6	22
3	Twente	8	7	0	1	+13	+6.6	21
4	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	+22	+17.6	20
5	Excelsior	8	3	4	1	+3	-1.9	13
6	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	1	3	+2	-8.0	13
7	Sparta Rotterdam	8	3	2	3	-3	-4.5	11
8	Heracles	8	3	2	3	-5	-3.8	11
9	Waalwijk	8	3	0	5	-8	-1.5	9
10	For Sittard	9	2	3	4	-9	-1.6	9
11	Nijmegen	8	2	2	4	-2	-7.2	8
12	Vitesse	8	2	1	5	-5	-3.4	7
13	Zwolle	8	2	1	5	-7	+0.1	7
14	Heerenveen	8	2	1	5	-8	-5.1	7
15	Almere City	8	2	1	5	-11	-3.7	7
16	Ajax	6	1	2	3	-4	-2.6	5
17	Volendam	8	1	1	6	-10	-2.8	4
18	Utrecht	8	1	0	7	-13	-8.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+12.3	15
2	Go Ahead Eagles	4	4	0	0	+11	+2.1	12
3	Twente	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.6	12
4	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+12	+9.0	10
5	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+10	+7.0	10
6	Heracles	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.3	9
7	For Sittard	4	2	1	1	+0	+2.2	7
8	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	+3	+0.6	6
9	Excelsior	4	1	3	0	+1	-1.2	6
10	Waalwijk	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.3	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	2	1	-3	-2.5	5
12	Volendam	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.1	4
13	Heerenveen	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.2	4
14	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.9	4
15	Ajax	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.2	3
16	Almere City	4	1	0	3	-7	-2.5	3
17	Vitesse	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
18	Utrecht	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+14	+8.0	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.6	12
3	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+10	+8.7	10
4	Twente	4	3	0	1	+7	+4.0	9
5	Excelsior	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.7	7
6	Vitesse	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.9	6
7	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.0	6
8	Almere City	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.3	4
9	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.9	3
10	Waalwijk	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.2	3
11	Heerenveen	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.3	3
12	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-5	-3.6	3
13	Ajax	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.4	2
14	Nijmegen	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.9	2
15	Heracles	4	0	2	2	-7	-5.1	2
16	For Sittard	5	0	2	3	-9	-3.8	2
17	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	1	3	-9	-10.1	1
18	Volendam	4	0	0	4	-8	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.