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Championship

Referee: R Welch

Middlesbrough

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Birmingham

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 41%

36%

45%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,63 xG 0,24

60% Possession 40%

17 Shots 5

10 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 10

12 Corners 0

5 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 16. · Birmingham 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	11	10	0	1	+17	+9.9	30
2	Ipswich	11	9	1	1	+12	+7.5	28
3	Preston	12	6	3	3	-2	-3.2	21
4	Sunderland	11	6	1	4	+8	+3.3	19
5	Leeds	11	5	4	2	+6	+7.6	19
6	Birmingham	11	5	3	3	+4	+4.1	18
7	Norwich	11	5	2	4	+2	-0.4	17
8	Cardiff	11	5	2	4	+2	+0.1	17
9	Hull	11	4	5	2	+2	-0.8	17
10	Southampton	11	5	2	4	-4	+1.9	17
11	West Brom	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.9	16
12	Millwall	12	4	4	4	-2	-5.0	16
13	Swansea	11	4	3	4	+4	+1.6	15
14	Coventry	11	3	6	2	+4	+4.3	15
15	Bristol City	11	4	3	4	+1	-0.0	15
16	Middlesbrough	11	4	2	5	-1	+6.6	14
17	Blackburn	11	4	1	6	-4	+0.1	13
18	Plymouth	11	3	2	6	-1	-4.2	11
19	Huddersfield	11	2	5	4	-7	-4.0	11
20	Watford	11	2	4	5	-2	+1.2	10
21	Stoke	11	3	1	7	-6	+0.2	10
22	QPR	11	2	2	7	-12	-8.4	8
23	Rotherham	11	1	3	7	-12	-13.1	6
24	Sheffield Weds	11	0	3	8	-13	-7.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	6	5	0	1	+8	+7.0	15
2	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+7	+4.8	15
3	Birmingham	6	4	2	0	+7	+3.3	14
4	Cardiff	6	4	1	1	+5	+1.8	13
5	Preston	6	4	1	1	+0	-1.9	13
6	Leeds	6	3	3	0	+5	+7.6	12
7	Norwich	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.5	12
8	Coventry	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.0	10
9	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.1	10
10	Plymouth	6	3	0	3	+4	-0.9	9
11	Sunderland	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.7	9
12	Watford	6	2	2	2	+4	+3.9	8
13	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.7	8
14	Southampton	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.8	8
15	Hull	5	1	4	0	+2	+0.9	7
16	Middlesbrough	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.8	7
17	Millwall	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.4	7
18	Stoke	5	2	0	3	-1	+0.9	6
19	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-4	+0.2	6
20	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	+0	+1.0	5
21	Rotherham	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.4	5
22	Huddersfield	5	1	2	2	-3	-2.2	5
23	Sheffield Weds	6	0	2	4	-6	-2.3	2
24	QPR	5	0	1	4	-9	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	5	5	0	0	+10	+5.1	15
2	Ipswich	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.5	13
3	Sunderland	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.5	10
4	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.0	10
5	Hull	6	3	1	2	+0	-1.6	10
6	Millwall	6	2	3	1	+1	-2.7	9
7	Southampton	5	3	0	2	-3	-0.9	9
8	Preston	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.3	8
9	Swansea	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.0	7
10	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.0	7
11	Blackburn	6	2	1	3	+0	-0.1	7
12	Middlesbrough	6	2	1	3	-1	+2.8	7
13	QPR	6	2	1	3	-3	-5.3	7
14	West Brom	6	1	3	2	+1	-1.9	6
15	Huddersfield	6	1	3	2	-4	-1.9	6
16	Coventry	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.4	5
17	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-2	-3.0	5
18	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.7	4
19	Birmingham	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.8	4
20	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-5	-0.7	4
21	Plymouth	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.3	2
22	Watford	5	0	2	3	-6	-2.7	2
23	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.1	1
24	Rotherham	6	0	1	5	-11	-8.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.