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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Verona

U T T U T

1–3

Full-time

Napoli

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Verona Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,5

3,5

Scored

0,3

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

38%

75%

Both score Ø 51%

38%

63%

Average goals

1,6

3,3

Scored

0,6

2,1

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,27 xG 2,34

40% Possession 60%

15 Shots 22

9 Shots on target 10

0 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Verona 16. · Napoli 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	8	7	0	1	+8	+5.2	21
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+16	+9.5	19
3	Juventus	8	5	2	1	+8	+6.6	17
4	Fiorentina	8	5	2	1	+7	-1.3	17
5	Napoli	8	4	2	2	+8	+10.5	14
6	Atalanta	8	4	1	3	+5	+4.5	13
7	Monza	8	3	3	2	+1	+2.3	12
8	Frosinone	8	3	3	2	+0	+0.3	12
9	Lecce	8	3	3	2	-1	-4.6	12
10	Roma	8	3	2	3	+7	+5.1	11
11	Bologna	8	2	5	1	+2	+2.1	11
12	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	-2	-4.3	10
13	Lazio	8	3	1	4	-2	-2.2	10
14	Torino	8	2	3	3	-3	-2.6	9
15	Genoa	8	2	2	4	-2	-3.3	8
16	Verona	8	2	2	4	-3	-4.6	8
17	Udinese	8	0	5	3	-8	-2.4	5
18	Empoli	8	1	1	6	-15	-5.1	4
19	Salernitana	8	0	3	5	-13	-10.3	3
20	Cagliari	8	0	2	6	-13	-5.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	3	1	1	+9	+6.1	10
2	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.9	10
3	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.2	10
4	Lecce	5	3	1	1	+0	-0.8	10
5	Milan	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.6	9
6	Monza	4	2	2	0	+5	+4.9	8
7	Roma	4	2	1	1	+8	+2.6	7
8	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.0	7
9	Fiorentina	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.9	7
10	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.9	7
11	Bologna	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.8	7
12	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+2	+6.3	6
13	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.5	6
14	Torino	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.7	6
15	Verona	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
16	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.0	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
18	Udinese	4	0	2	2	-5	+1.3	2
19	Salernitana	4	0	2	2	-7	-2.8	2
20	Cagliari	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	5	4	0	1	+2	+0.6	12
2	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+3	-3.2	10
3	Inter	3	3	0	0	+7	+3.3	9
4	Napoli	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.2	8
5	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
6	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
7	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.3	4
8	Roma	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
9	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.3	4
10	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
11	Verona	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.8	4
12	Monza	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
13	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-3.7	3
14	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-4	-4.0	3
15	Torino	4	1	0	3	-4	-3.3	3
16	Lecce	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.8	2
17	Frosinone	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.1	2
18	Salernitana	4	0	1	3	-6	-7.5	1
19	Cagliari	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.8	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-12	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.