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Taça de Portugal

Referee: João Ferreira

Paredes

S U U S

2–1

Full-time

Moreirense

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paredes Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Felgueiras 1932	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
10	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
11	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+4	4
12	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
13	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
14	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
15	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+12	3
17	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
18	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
19	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
20	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
21	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
22	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
23	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
24	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
25	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
26	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
27	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
28	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
29	Mirandela	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
31	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
60	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
61	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
62	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
63	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
64	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
65	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
66	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
67	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
68	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
69	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Atlético CP	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
81	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
82	SC Covilha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
83	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
84	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
123	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
124	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
125	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
126	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
127	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
128	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
129	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
130	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
131	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
132	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
3	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
5	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
6	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
7	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
8	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
13	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
31	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Atlético CP	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
39	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
69	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
70	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
71	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
73	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
2	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+12	3
5	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
6	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
10	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Mirandela	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
44	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
75	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
76	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
79	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
80	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
81	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.