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Bundesliga

Referee: B Cortus

Bayern Munich

S S T S S

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

2,7

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 61%

79%

43%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

86%

50%

Both score Ø 61%

71%

50%

Average goals

4,3

2,4

Scored

3,2

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

21 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Mainz 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	11	1	2	+30	34
2	Dortmund	14	10	0	4	+13	30
3	Leverkusen	14	8	3	3	+16	27
4	Freiburg	14	7	4	3	+12	25
5	Hoffenheim	14	7	2	5	+8	23
6	Union Berlin	14	6	5	3	+2	23
7	Mainz	14	6	3	5	+6	21
8	Wolfsburg	14	6	2	6	-5	20
9	FC Koln	15	4	7	4	-2	19
10	Bochum	14	6	1	7	-7	19
11	RB Leipzig	14	5	3	6	+7	18
12	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	6	4	-2	18
13	M'gladbach	14	5	3	6	-6	18
14	Augsburg	15	4	4	7	-9	16
15	Hertha	14	4	3	7	-14	15
16	Stuttgart	14	3	5	6	-5	14
17	Bielefeld	14	1	7	6	-10	10
18	Greuther Furth	14	0	1	13	-34	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	8	7	0	1	+11	21
2	Bayern Munich	7	6	0	1	+18	18
3	Union Berlin	8	5	2	1	+4	17
4	Hoffenheim	7	5	1	1	+10	16
5	RB Leipzig	7	5	0	2	+12	15
6	Mainz	8	4	3	1	+9	15
7	FC Koln	8	4	3	1	+6	15
8	M'gladbach	7	4	2	1	+2	14
9	Bochum	6	4	1	1	+5	13
10	Leverkusen	7	4	0	3	+5	12
11	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+4	11
12	Stuttgart	8	3	2	3	+3	11
13	Augsburg	7	3	1	3	-3	10
14	Wolfsburg	7	3	1	3	-3	10
15	Hertha	6	2	2	2	+0	8
16	Ein Frankfurt	6	1	4	1	+0	7
17	Bielefeld	8	0	5	3	-7	5
18	Greuther Furth	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	1	1	+12	16
2	Leverkusen	7	4	3	0	+11	15
3	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+8	14
4	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	2	3	-2	11
5	Wolfsburg	7	3	1	3	-2	10
6	Dortmund	6	3	0	3	+2	9
7	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-2	7
8	Hertha	8	2	1	5	-14	7
9	Union Berlin	6	1	3	2	-2	6
10	Mainz	6	2	0	4	-3	6
11	Augsburg	8	1	3	4	-6	6
12	Bochum	8	2	0	6	-12	6
13	Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	FC Koln	7	0	4	3	-8	4
15	M'gladbach	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	RB Leipzig	7	0	3	4	-5	3
17	Stuttgart	6	0	3	3	-8	3
18	Greuther Furth	8	0	0	8	-25	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.