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Super League
Referee: E Staubli
Luzern
T S T S T
3–1
Full-time
Winterthur
T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Winterthur
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
83%
100%
Average goals
4,5
4,3
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
3,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
-1,5
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 36%
43%
29%
Points per game
1,5
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 68%
57%
79%
Both score Ø 82%
71%
93%
Average goals
3,2
4,3
Scored
1,4
1,9
Conceded
1,8
2,4
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,22 xG 1,12
51% Possession 49%
16 Shots 20
5 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 7
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 5
13 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Luzern 5. · Winterthur 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Young Boys 13 8 4 1 +19 +2.0 28
2 Zurich 14 7 6 1 +14 -1.7 27
3 St. Gallen 14 8 3 3 +12 +7.4 27
4 Servette 14 7 4 3 +6 +6.7 25
5 Luzern 14 6 3 5 -5 +0.3 21
6 Yverdon 14 4 5 5 -6 -4.2 17
7 Lausanne 14 4 4 6 +0 +1.9 16
8 Lugano 13 5 1 7 -3 +3.4 16
9 Winterthur 14 4 4 6 -6 +0.1 16
10 Grasshoppers 14 4 2 8 -3 -3.1 14
11 Lausanne Ouchy 13 2 4 7 -14 -4.9 10
12 Basel 13 2 2 9 -14 -7.9 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Luzern Winterthur
1–0 S. Chader
M. Frýdek
6′
Martin Frýdek 🟨
13′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 R. Schneider
↦ S. Ballet
50′
🔁 N. Burkart
↦ T. Corbaz
N. Haas 🔁
↦ A. Jashari
51′
66′
T. Schättin 1–1
S. Ltaief
D. Ulrich 🔁
↦ S. Chader
71′
74′
🟨 Remo Arnold
76′
🟨 Basil Stillhart
J. Kadák 🔁
↦ M. Meyer
81′
Asumah Abubakar 🔁
↦ L. Villiger
81′
84′
🔁 S. Ramizi
↦ S. Ltaief
2–1 D. Simani
85′
Dario Ulrich 🟨
87′
89′
🔁 R. Buess
↦ T. Schättin
3–1 Asumah Abubakar
M. Frýdek
90′
95′
🟨 Randy Schneider
Nicolas Haas 🟨
96′
96′
🟨 Samir Ramizi
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Luzern

4-3-1-2
1 P. Loretz G
2 S. Ottiger D
4 L. Jaquez D
5 D. Simani D
13 M. Frýdek D
20 P. Dorn M
6 A. Jashari M
18 N. Beloko M
7 M. Meyer M
69 S. Chader F
27 L. Villiger F
Bench (9)
32 N. Haas
22 D. Ulrich
16 J. Kadák
21 Asumah Abubakar
71 S. Meyer
17 T. Klidje
41 N. Rupp
90 V. Vasić
23 M. Willimann

Coach: M. Frick

Winterthur

4-2-3-1
33 M. Keller G
19 A. Gantenbein D
4 B. Stillhart D
16 R. Arnold D
3 T. Schättin D
14 T. Corbaz M
77 L. Zuffi M
17 S. Ballet M
10 M. Di Giusto M
70 S. Ltaief M
11 A. Turkes F
Bench (9)
6 R. Schneider
99 N. Burkart
8 S. Ramizi
9 R. Buess
30 M. Kuster
25 Y. Schmid
34 L. Lüthi
18 S. Diaby
24 S. Sidler

Coach: P. Rahmen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

E Staubli · 28 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.