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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Newcastle

U S S T T

4–1

Full-time

Chelsea

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,2

4,3

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

2,3

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,36 xG 0,53

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

13 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Newcastle 7. · Chelsea 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	2	2	+20	+14.5	29
2	Liverpool	13	8	4	1	+17	+11.5	28
3	Arsenal	12	8	3	1	+16	+12.1	27
4	Tottenham	12	8	2	2	+9	+0.3	26
5	Aston Villa	12	8	1	3	+12	+8.1	25
6	Man United	12	7	0	5	-3	-1.4	21
7	Newcastle	12	6	2	4	+14	+10.2	20
8	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	+3.5	19
9	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-1	-4.7	17
10	Chelsea	12	4	4	4	+5	+10.4	16
11	Brentford	12	4	4	4	+2	+6.3	16
12	Wolves	12	4	3	5	-4	-2.8	15
13	Crystal Palace	12	4	3	5	-4	-2.7	15
14	Everton	12	4	2	6	-3	+2.1	14
15	Nott'm Forest	12	3	4	5	-4	-5.5	13
16	Fulham	12	3	3	6	-10	-10.0	12
17	Bournemouth	12	2	3	7	-16	-10.3	9
18	Luton	12	1	3	8	-12	-12.0	6
19	Sheffield United	12	1	2	9	-21	-16.9	5
20	Burnley	12	1	1	10	-21	-12.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	6	6	0	0	+18	+9.0	18
2	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+15	+10.4	18
3	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+11	+8.5	17
4	Man City	6	5	1	0	+13	+3.7	16
5	Newcastle	6	5	0	1	+11	+7.9	15
6	Brighton	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.7	12
7	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+3	-0.7	12
8	Man United	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.3	12
9	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	-3.2	10
10	Nott'm Forest	5	2	3	0	+3	+0.3	9
11	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+2	+3.0	9
12	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-3	-2.2	8
13	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.1	8
14	Chelsea	7	1	3	3	-1	+4.0	6
15	Fulham	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.3	6
16	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.5	5
17	Everton	6	1	1	4	-1	+4.8	4
18	Sheffield United	6	1	1	4	-10	-8.7	4
19	Luton	5	0	2	3	-3	-1.0	2
20	Burnley	6	0	0	6	-14	-5.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.0	14
2	Man City	7	4	1	2	+7	+10.8	13
3	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.4	10
4	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.6	10
5	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.1	10
6	Everton	6	3	1	2	-2	-2.7	10
7	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	-2	-2.2	10
8	Man United	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.8	9
9	Brentford	6	2	1	3	+0	+3.4	7
10	Brighton	5	2	1	2	-1	+0.8	7
11	Wolves	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.6	7
12	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.5	7
13	Aston Villa	6	2	1	3	-6	-1.0	7
14	Fulham	7	1	3	3	-7	-7.8	6
15	Newcastle	6	1	2	3	+3	+2.3	5
16	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.7	4
17	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-7	-6.9	4
18	Luton	7	1	1	5	-9	-11.1	4
19	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-11	-8.3	1
20	Bournemouth	5	0	1	4	-12	-6.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.