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Bundesliga
Referee: R Hartmann
Wolfsburg
T T S U T
2–1
Full-time
RB Leipzig
S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolfsburg RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,5
3,3
Scored
1,2
2,3
Conceded
2,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 50%
36%
64%
Points per game
1,2
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 73%
73%
73%
Both score Ø 55%
64%
45%
Average goals
3,2
3,5
Scored
1,4
2,5
Conceded
1,8
0,9
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,96 xG 2,76
36% Possession 64%
10 Shots 26
4 Shots on target 10
3 Blocked shots 8
8 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 12
0 Offside 4
18 Free kicks against 11
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Wolfsburg 11. · RB Leipzig 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 12 10 2 0 +34 +27.9 32
2 Leverkusen 11 10 1 0 +24 +12.0 31
3 Stuttgart 11 8 0 3 +15 +16.0 24
4 RB Leipzig 11 7 2 2 +18 +5.5 23
5 Dortmund 11 6 3 2 +4 +0.8 21
6 Hoffenheim 11 6 1 4 +3 -0.9 19
7 Ein Frankfurt 11 4 6 1 +6 +1.7 18
8 Freiburg 11 4 2 5 -8 -1.5 14
9 M'gladbach 11 3 4 4 +0 -0.2 13
10 Augsburg 11 3 4 4 -3 +0.7 13
11 Wolfsburg 11 4 1 6 -5 -0.6 13
12 Werder Bremen 11 3 2 6 -4 -4.6 11
13 Heidenheim 11 3 1 7 -9 -13.0 10
14 Bochum 11 1 6 4 -14 -7.2 9
15 Darmstadt 11 2 2 7 -18 -11.9 8
16 Mainz 11 1 4 6 -13 -5.4 7
17 Union Berlin 11 2 0 9 -15 -4.4 6
18 FC Koln 12 1 3 8 -15 -14.8 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Wolfsburg RB Leipzig
1–0 J. Wind
M. Svanberg
9′
32′
ℹ️ Loïs Openda
VAR: Penalty cancelled
33′
🟨 Loïs Openda
Mattias Svanberg 🟨
35′
Half-time 1–0
M. Jenz 🔁
↦ S. Bornauw
46′
Cedric Zesiger 🟨
49′
52′
Y. Poulsen 1–1
L. Openda
Maxence Lacroix 🟨
59′
2–1 Rogério
J. Wind
66′
K. Paredes 🔁
↦ V. Černý
73′
73′
🔁 E. Forsberg
↦ Y. Poulsen
M. Arnold 🔁
↦ L. Majer
77′
79′
🟨 Xavi Simons
Tiago Tomás 🔁
↦ J. Wind
83′
Y. Gerhardt 🔁
↦ M. Svanberg
83′
83′
🔁 Fábio Carvalho
↦ C. Baumgartner
83′
🔁 N. Seiwald
↦ A. Haidara
Koen Casteels 🟨
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Wolfsburg

3-4-3
1 K. Casteels G
4 M. Lacroix D
3 S. Bornauw D
5 C. Zesiger D
20 R. Baku M
32 M. Svanberg M
6 A. Vranckx M
13 Rogério M
7 V. Černý F
23 J. Wind F
19 L. Majer F
Bench (9)
25 M. Jenz
40 K. Paredes
27 M. Arnold
11 Tiago Tomás
31 Y. Gerhardt
12 P. Pervan
16 J. Kamiński
9 A. Sarr
2 K. Fischer

Coach: N. Kovač

RB Leipzig

4-2-2-2
21 J. Blaswich G
39 B. Henrichs D
2 M. Simakan D
23 C. Lukeba D
22 D. Raum D
8 A. Haidara M
24 X. Schlager M
14 C. Baumgartner M
20 X. Simons M
9 Y. Poulsen F
17 L. Openda F
Bench (9)
10 E. Forsberg
18 Fábio Carvalho
13 N. Seiwald
26 I. Moriba
30 B. Šeško
1 P. Gulácsi
3 C. Lenz
44 K. Kampl
16 L. Klostermann

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,77
U
3,94
B
1,92
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,60
U2,5
2,36
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Hartmann · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.