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Ekstraklasa

Referee: K Jakubik

Pogon Szczecin

U S S S U

2–3

Full-time

Stal Mielec

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pogon Szczecin Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 43%

53%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

40%

53%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,58 xG 1,99

66% Possession 34%

31 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 4

12 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

2 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Pogon Szczecin 5. · Stal Mielec 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	15	10	3	2	+14	+4.1	33
2	Jagiellonia	16	9	4	3	+15	+6.2	31
3	Lech Poznan	15	8	5	2	+9	-2.9	29
4	Rakow	15	8	4	3	+14	+7.2	28
5	Pogon Szczecin	15	8	2	5	+12	+9.5	26
6	Legia	14	7	3	4	+3	+1.5	24
7	Zaglebie	16	7	3	6	-5	+4.3	24
8	Radomiak Radom	15	5	4	6	-1	+1.0	19
9	Widzew Lodz	15	5	4	6	-2	-2.1	19
10	Gornik Zabrze	15	5	4	6	-2	-5.6	19
11	Piast Gliwice	16	2	12	2	+0	+10.3	18
12	Stal Mielec	15	5	3	7	-2	-7.2	18
13	Warta Poznan	15	4	5	6	-2	-1.1	17
14	Korona Kielce	14	3	7	4	+0	-0.6	16
15	Cracovia	15	3	7	5	-6	-2.7	16
16	Puszcza	15	3	4	8	-12	-8.3	13
17	Ruch Chorzow	15	1	6	8	-12	-6.6	9
18	LKS Lodz	16	2	2	12	-23	-7.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	8	7	1	0	+17	+8.4	22
2	Rakow	9	6	3	0	+16	+8.0	21
3	Lech Poznan	8	6	2	0	+13	+0.7	20
4	Slask Wroclaw	7	5	1	1	+8	+4.6	16
5	Legia	8	5	1	2	+7	+4.7	16
6	Zaglebie	8	4	3	1	+3	+3.6	15
7	Widzew Lodz	7	5	0	2	+3	+4.8	15
8	Stal Mielec	8	4	2	2	+5	-0.9	14
9	Pogon Szczecin	8	4	1	3	+4	+11.2	13
10	Gornik Zabrze	7	3	2	2	-1	-2.9	11
11	Korona Kielce	7	2	4	1	+3	+5.0	10
12	Piast Gliwice	7	2	4	1	+1	+7.6	10
13	Radomiak Radom	7	2	3	2	+2	+1.5	9
14	Puszcza	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.7	9
15	LKS Lodz	8	2	2	4	-9	-6.1	8
16	Ruch Chorzow	7	1	3	3	-4	-1.3	6
17	Warta Poznan	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.2	6
18	Cracovia	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	8	5	2	1	+6	-0.5	17
2	Pogon Szczecin	7	4	1	2	+8	-1.7	13
3	Warta Poznan	7	3	2	2	+2	-0.8	11
4	Cracovia	8	2	4	2	+0	-1.7	10
5	Radomiak Radom	8	3	1	4	-3	-0.5	10
6	Jagiellonia	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.1	9
7	Lech Poznan	7	2	3	2	-4	-3.6	9
8	Zaglebie	8	3	0	5	-8	+0.7	9
9	Gornik Zabrze	8	2	2	4	-1	-2.8	8
10	Piast Gliwice	9	0	8	1	-1	+2.7	8
11	Legia	6	2	2	2	-4	-3.2	8
12	Rakow	6	2	1	3	-2	-0.8	7
13	Korona Kielce	7	1	3	3	-3	-5.6	6
14	Widzew Lodz	8	0	4	4	-5	-6.9	4
15	Stal Mielec	7	1	1	5	-7	-6.4	4
16	Puszcza	8	1	1	6	-10	-7.7	4
17	Ruch Chorzow	8	0	3	5	-8	-5.2	3
18	LKS Lodz	8	0	0	8	-14	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.