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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Milan

T U T S U

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 54%

58%

50%

Points per game

1,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

58%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,83 xG 1,99

42% Possession 58%

9 Shots 20

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 9

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 11

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 4. · Fiorentina 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	1	1	+23	+16.6	31
2	Juventus	12	9	2	1	+12	+12.5	29
3	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+12	+14.1	24
4	Milan	12	7	2	3	+6	+3.3	23
5	Atalanta	13	6	2	5	+8	+3.9	20
6	Fiorentina	12	6	2	4	+4	-3.6	20
7	Roma	12	5	3	4	+8	+5.5	18
8	Bologna	12	4	6	2	+3	+2.7	18
9	Monza	12	4	5	3	+2	+0.3	17
10	Lazio	13	5	2	6	-1	+1.3	17
11	Torino	12	4	4	4	-4	-1.4	16
12	Frosinone	12	4	3	5	-3	-5.1	15
13	Lecce	12	3	5	4	-3	-7.5	14
14	Genoa	12	4	2	6	-3	-2.1	14
15	Sassuolo	12	3	3	6	-5	-7.1	12
16	Udinese	12	1	8	3	-7	+1.2	11
17	Empoli	12	3	1	8	-16	-5.7	10
18	Cagliari	12	2	3	7	-12	-5.0	9
19	Verona	12	2	2	8	-9	-10.0	8
20	Salernitana	13	1	5	7	-15	-13.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	7	5	1	1	+12	+10.8	16
2	Juventus	6	5	1	0	+7	+9.7	16
3	Roma	6	4	1	1	+10	+5.2	13
4	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+4	+1.8	13
5	Frosinone	6	4	1	1	+3	-0.5	13
6	Lazio	6	3	2	1	+3	+3.4	11
7	Lecce	7	3	2	2	-1	-0.8	11
8	Atalanta	6	3	1	2	+5	+1.8	10
9	Monza	6	2	4	0	+5	+4.3	10
10	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	+1.2	10
11	Genoa	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.3	10
12	Milan	5	3	0	2	+4	+2.9	9
13	Torino	6	2	3	1	-1	+1.6	9
14	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.8	8
15	Napoli	6	2	1	3	+1	+6.5	7
16	Cagliari	6	2	1	3	-5	+0.4	7
17	Salernitana	7	1	3	3	-8	-4.2	6
18	Verona	5	1	1	3	-4	-2.7	4
19	Udinese	6	0	4	2	-5	+3.8	4
20	Empoli	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	5	2	0	+11	+7.5	17
2	Inter	5	5	0	0	+11	+5.8	15
3	Milan	7	4	2	1	+2	+0.4	14
4	Juventus	6	4	1	1	+5	+2.7	13
5	Atalanta	7	3	1	3	+3	+2.1	10
6	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.8	10
7	Udinese	6	1	4	1	-2	-2.5	7
8	Torino	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.0	7
9	Monza	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.0	7
10	Lazio	7	2	0	5	-4	-2.1	6
11	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-10	-4.0	6
12	Bologna	6	0	5	1	-1	+0.8	5
13	Roma	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.3	5
14	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-4	-7.9	4
15	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-4	-2.5	4
16	Verona	7	1	1	5	-5	-7.3	4
17	Lecce	5	0	3	2	-2	-6.8	3
18	Frosinone	6	0	2	4	-6	-4.6	2
19	Cagliari	6	0	2	4	-7	-5.4	2
20	Salernitana	6	0	2	4	-7	-9.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.