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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

Ajax

T S S T U

5–0

Full-time

Vitesse

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Vitesse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 11/12 matches

Win Ø 22%

27%

17%

Points per game

1,1

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

82%

50%

Both score Ø 62%

73%

50%

Average goals

4,1

2,8

Scored

1,9

0,8

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,86 xG 0,53

64% Possession 36%

19 Shots 9

12 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 9

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 12. · Vitesse 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	13	0	0	+43	+30.1	39
2	Feyenoord	13	10	2	1	+29	+27.6	32
3	Twente	13	8	3	2	+11	+7.8	27
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	8	2	1	+20	+9.2	26
5	Go Ahead Eagles	12	6	3	3	+7	-6.8	21
6	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	3	4	+1	-2.6	18
7	Heerenveen	13	5	1	7	-6	-1.8	16
8	Excelsior	13	3	6	4	-3	-4.2	15
9	Zwolle	12	4	2	6	-7	-4.1	14
10	Almere City	12	3	4	5	-10	-3.5	13
11	For Sittard	13	3	4	6	-11	-3.4	13
12	Ajax	11	3	3	5	-3	-2.7	12
13	Heracles	12	3	3	6	-17	-10.4	12
14	Nijmegen	11	2	5	4	-2	-8.1	11
15	Utrecht	12	2	3	7	-12	-10.1	9
16	Waalwijk	11	3	0	8	-12	-5.3	9
17	Volendam	12	2	2	8	-13	-4.1	8
18	Vitesse	12	2	2	8	-15	-7.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+20	+16.2	21
2	Feyenoord	6	5	1	0	+17	+11.9	16
3	Go Ahead Eagles	6	5	1	0	+15	+4.3	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	+4	+2.8	16
5	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.1	13
6	For Sittard	6	3	2	1	+3	+3.6	11
7	Heerenveen	6	3	1	2	+3	+3.7	10
8	Heracles	6	3	1	2	-4	-3.6	10
9	Ajax	5	3	0	2	+3	+1.7	9
10	Nijmegen	6	2	2	2	+3	+1.5	8
11	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.7	8
12	Excelsior	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.3	7
13	Volendam	6	2	1	3	-3	+2.2	7
14	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-3	+1.8	7
15	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-6	-4.3	6
16	Utrecht	6	1	2	3	-7	-5.7	5
17	Almere City	6	1	2	3	-7	-1.7	5
18	Vitesse	6	0	2	4	-8	-1.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+23	+13.9	18
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+12	+15.6	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+7	+1.1	13
4	Twente	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.0	11
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.0	10
6	Excelsior	6	2	2	2	+0	-1.9	8
7	Almere City	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.7	8
8	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-4	-5.8	7
9	Vitesse	6	2	0	4	-7	-5.7	6
10	Heerenveen	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.6	6
11	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-8	-11.2	5
12	Utrecht	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.4	4
13	Nijmegen	5	0	3	2	-5	-9.5	3
14	Ajax	6	0	3	3	-6	-4.4	3
15	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
16	Heracles	6	0	2	4	-13	-6.8	2
17	For Sittard	7	0	2	5	-14	-7.0	2
18	Volendam	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.