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Eredivisie
Referee: M van den Kerkhof
Zwolle
S U T S T
1–2
Full-time
Waalwijk
S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Zwolle Waalwijk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 12/11 matches
Win Ø 30%
33%
27%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
58%
55%
Both score Ø 47%
58%
36%
Average goals
2,9
2,5
Scored
1,2
0,7
Conceded
1,8
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,97 xG 1,51
53% Possession 47%
17 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 8
1 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Zwolle 9. · Waalwijk 16.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 13 13 0 0 +43 +30.1 39
2 Feyenoord 13 10 2 1 +29 +27.6 32
3 Twente 13 8 3 2 +11 +7.8 27
4 AZ Alkmaar 11 8 2 1 +20 +9.2 26
5 Go Ahead Eagles 12 6 3 3 +7 -6.8 21
6 Sparta Rotterdam 12 5 3 4 +1 -2.6 18
7 Heerenveen 13 5 1 7 -6 -1.8 16
8 Excelsior 13 3 6 4 -3 -4.2 15
9 Zwolle 12 4 2 6 -7 -4.1 14
10 Almere City 12 3 4 5 -10 -3.5 13
11 For Sittard 13 3 4 6 -11 -3.4 13
12 Ajax 11 3 3 5 -3 -2.7 12
13 Heracles 12 3 3 6 -17 -10.4 12
14 Nijmegen 11 2 5 4 -2 -8.1 11
15 Utrecht 12 2 3 7 -12 -10.1 9
16 Waalwijk 11 3 0 8 -12 -5.3 9
17 Volendam 12 2 2 8 -13 -4.1 8
18 Vitesse 12 2 2 8 -15 -7.6 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Zwolle Waalwijk
14′
F. Stevanović 0–1
D. Cleonise
1–1 D. van den Berg
29′
42′
🟨 Filip Stevanović
Half-time 1–2
50′
C. Lokesa 1–2
J. Lelieveld
F. Druijf 🔁
↦ R. Thomas
60′
O. Velanas 🔁
↦ E. Reijnders
61′
A. Vellios 🔁
↦ L. Thy
74′
Younes Namli 🟨
78′
78′
🟨 Michiel Kramer
79′
🔁 R. Niemeijer
↦ C. Lokesa
79′
🔁 D. Min
↦ M. Kramer
79′
🔁 J. Gaari
↦ J. Lelieveld
A. El Azzouzi 🔁
↦ A. MacNulty
80′
84′
🔁 Z. Bakkali
↦ F. Stevanović
88′
🔁 J. Bruma
↦ D. Cleonise
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Zwolle

4-3-3
1 J. Schendelaar G
2 B. van Polen D
4 S. Kersten D
13 T. Lam D
15 A. MacNulty D
28 Z. Buurmeester M
30 R. Thomas M
11 D. van den Berg M
7 Y. Namli F
9 L. Thy F
23 E. Reijnders F
Bench (10)
10 F. Druijf
18 O. Velanas
14 A. Vellios
6 A. El Azzouzi
17 A. Fontana
33 D. van der Haar
40 M. Hauptmeijer
19 Nico Serrano
3 L. Görlich
25 K. Vermeer

Coach: J. Jansen

Waalwijk

4-3-3
1 E. Vaessen G
2 J. Lelieveld D
4 S. Adewoye D
3 D. Van den Buijs D
28 A. Meijers D
24 G. Roemeratoe M
14 C. Lokesa M
6 Y. Oukili M
7 D. Cleonise F
29 M. Kramer F
10 F. Stevanović F
Bench (12)
27 R. Niemeijer
9 D. Min
23 J. Gaari
11 Z. Bakkali
25 J. Bruma
13 M. Spenkelink
21 J. Houwen
35 K. Felida
5 T. Lutonda
22 R. Meir
30 D. Weidmann
8 P. Vroegh

Coach: H. Fraser

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,77
U
3,91
B ✓
4,25
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,68
U2,5
2,18
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M van den Kerkhof · 96 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.